Winter forecast 16/17: colder!


By meteomorris on 19 April 2016 · 1

Winter 2015/2016 was short, (too) mild and relatively wet after it finally started to snow in January. A second El Niño in a row led to a worldwide increase in average temperature. The good news is that the winter of 2016/2017 won't be an El Niño winter. And according to the American weather institute NOAA there's a chance that the temperatures will be lower than average (worldwide). The reason is a high probability that we'll have to deal with a La Niña. "The chance of La Niña increases during the late summer or early fall.”

Models are calculating a La Niña
Models are calculating a La Niña

Lower temperatures worldwide

During an El Niño year it gets warmer than average worldwide, but the opposite happens during a La Niña year: it is colder than average. (Source). It's an average of tenths of a degree, but that can be the difference between a snow line at low altitude or rain up to high altitude in the middle of winter. Especially in the Alps and Canadian Rockies this can be the difference between a mild winter and a cold winter. Check out the maps below.

Higher temperatures during El Niño
Higher temperatures during El Niño

Lower temperatures during la Niña
Lower temperatures during la Niña

It is not written in stone yet that it will be a La Niña winter, but it is sure that El Niño won't be that strong. The temperature will drop around the world and maybe even a bit more if the calculations of the NOAA are right. Nature just gave its first signal for winter 2016-2017!

Check out more about La Niña and El Niño here.

Comments


  • Matteo_DG
    Expert
    Matteo_DG op 22 September 2016 · 13:36
    I have a big monkey on my shoulder shouting
    "SNOOOOOOOOW"
    DG

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