Long term: dominant high pressure?


By meteomorris on 29 September 2017 · 0

It's almost October and normally this would be the time where the temperature starts dropping. But the weather models are not quite sure yet whether autumn should start already. The models are calculating a dominant high pressure area above central Europe for the long term.

  • September was cold with regular snowfall
  • Turbulent weather at the end of September and the beginning of October
  • Dominant high pressure area the first week of October
  • Shifting models after the first week of October

September was cold with regular snowfall

The Alps had to deal with four dumps since the end of August. It was pretty cold, especially during the first two weeks of September. That was pretty good for the glaciers, who suffered a lot during a summer that just was too warm. It's striking that the Weissfluhjoch in Davos (Switzerland) had 15 days of snow in September. And yes that's a record (it's being measured since 1955).

Number of days with snowfall on the Weissfluhjoch
Number of days with snowfall on the Weissfluhjoch

Turbulent weather at the end of September and the beginning of October

The last week of September was a bit warmer and the precipitation [that's in the forecast for this weekend] (http://wepowder.com/forecast) only brings snow to the high alpine. Rain is dominating the lower altitudes. It's all caused by a strong jetstream from the west that will bring stormy weather to northwestern Europe the next couple of days.

Dominant high pressure area the first week of October

October starts turbulent, but the jetstream is soon forced northward. More stable weather is in the forecast after Tuesday (with some bad weather this weekend). A strong high-pressure area will settle itself above central Europe. This will result in warmer and drier air. The nights will be cold, but the days will be sunny and dry. According to the latest calculations, this blockade will stick around at least till the first week of October.

High pressure blockade
High pressure blockade

Looking further into the future, the models differ quite a bit. According to the most calculations there is a quite a chance that high pressure will keep on playing its dominant role until mid October (which means no snowfall). There are also calculations that show a shift in the second week of October. Anyway, you don't even have to think about winter next week. If for some reason the weather will change, you'll read it here.

And pssst, the wePowder shop is online.

Stay stoked
Morris


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