The northern parts of Europe will be hit by storm Christian today. The core pressure of this storm is extremely low and it has been a long time since northern Europe experienced a storm like this, especially in October. Christian will start a western depression.
The Alps will be hit be a storm depression from Monday night till Wednesday morning. The snowline will drop to 1400 meters during the passage of the cold front. At the same time, a small low pressure area is forming just south of the Alps and as a result the eastern part of the main alpine ridge (from the Swiss Engadin till the Steiermark in the east) will be pretty much a hot dog between two buns. This will result in around 30-50 centimeters (locally even 70 centimeters) of freshies above 2000 meters. The weather will calm down after Wednesday.
Jetstram is on fire
The jetstream is responsible for this depression overkill these days and it will last for a while. This map (push the animation button) is showing how Europe will be under the influence of the jetstream this week. It looks like autumn has begun. The jetstream isn't an indicator for snow in the Alps. It is for rowdy weather in Europe. The position of the jetstream determines if it's going to snow or that it will rain. For snow during autumn it's quite important that there's room for temporary cold fronts, or a meandering jetstream that will result in a northwestern current.
Short term: a temporary cold front
The jetstream will drop on Tuesday and Wednesday and this allows cold air to enter the Alps. And guess what....it's resulting in snow!
This situation looks a bit like October 11th, when the Alps got their first PowderAlert. What are the similarities? Cold air coming in from the northwest, a temporary low in the Po-valley. The wind turned southwest after the passage of the low pressure area and the temperatures rose. But there also are big differences. The wind will drop on Thursday and Friday.
Freshies for the glaciers: PowderAlert# 1B
The glaciers of Kaunertal, Stubai, Sölden, the Diavolezza in the Engadin and Hintertux can expect the most snow. You can expect 30-50 centimeters of freshies (locally even 70 cm), with a wind that will drop slowly but surely. Thursday and Friday might be really nice. Because it's so early in the season, I've named it PowderAlert 1B. No powderstress please this early in the season!
More snow on Sunday and Monday, but it's too early for the details. What will happen after that is even more interesting. The European model is showing that winter will arrive after November the 6th. The American GFS model isn't showing that on their maps (yet).
But let's have a look at the webcams first on Wednesday and Thursday. Or is there somebody on one of the glaciers on Thursday and Friday? Let me know!