The first northern Stau of winter 14/15
Let's start the season with some warnings. This is the first significant dump for the northern Alps. There is no base at all and even on the glaciers the snow is scarce. This is a low pressure area that will pass rapidly, with lots of wind and a high pressure area right after it. Let's put it in a simple way: this is a dump to get stoked and maybe for some first powder turns on the slopes on one of the glaciers in Austria. Let's proceed with the current situation in the Alps.
Little snow on the glaciers
I expect the most snow on the glaciers in Austria, so let's focus on those rivers of ice. Because that's what they are at the moment. Check out the images below, it's blue ice galore. The only exception is Hintertux where you can spot something that looks like snow and winter.The 'blue' slope on the Kitz in Kaprun
Finally, it looks white in Hintertux
The images above show that the best conditions can be found in Hintertux. But why do I focus on the glaciers in Austria and not on the glaciers in France and Switzerland? You should go to Tignes in France and the two best glaciers in Switzerland are Saas Fee and Zermatt. Don't they expect any freshies?
A map that I've posted on the ninth of October (the second map below) show lots of similarities with the map right below (which is from the 17th of October). It's a situation with a so-called slide, making sure that snow will fall in the Alps.
There definitely hope that winter will arrive. But there are still five days left before it's the 22nd of October. Another 120 hours to give the atmosphere some room to deviate from this forecast. With the current situation when there's a slide involved, the position of the high pressure area west or north of France will determine where the snow will fall. Normally, these 'slides' tend to move to the east (or pushed to the east). The precipitation maps showed that the Gotthard region were going to hit the jackpot, but for now, our snowcaps how that most of the snow is going to fall in Switzerland and Austria. I expect that especially Austria will get the most snow. And because of this uncertainty, my advice would be to go to Austria for the first powder turn. The high pressure area that will arise from the west will cause it to snow lightly in the French Alps, a bit more in Switzerland, but I think that most snow will fall on the glaciers east of Innsbruck. It will snow on Tuesday and Wednesday, and it will snow deep into the valleys.
The sun will come out rapidly after the snowfall and Thursday and Friday could be very nice days. The temperatures will rise as well, but this dump could be your first powder turns of the season. I'm holding my horses for the moment, but I understand that for some of you the itch is just too much.
More details on Monday!