PowderAlert # 4 is in the making, but where exactly will it snow? Every run of the weather models it's confirmed that significant snow will arrive, but where, that's the question? The various models were indicating the snow would fall in the west and the south on Tuesday, but today they focus on the northwest with snowfall in parts of the north and south in the aftermath. The models are shifting a bit so to say...And for those who have already booked well in advance a true thriller. Because will the snow fall in Tignes and La Plagne? Or do you have go to the Dolomites? Or will it snow heavily in both places? It is too early to make a judgment on all that. The output of the models is still too variable and that all has to do with the exact path of the low-pressure area that will be created above the British Isles on Friday.
If you haven't booked yet, here's my advice: wait a bit longer until Thursday / Friday. Then it's more clear about what is going to happen in the atmosphere and I can tell you exactly where the snow will fall and where to book. Have you already booked or are you already in the Alps, then an analysis of what is possible will follow below. But first the short term, because it's really clear what will happen.
Short term: Northern Stau
Freia III and IV are ready to send snow towards the Northern Alps in the night before Christmas. The core of this system still lies in the eastern Swiss northern Alpine ridge and the Voralberg. But it may also snow heavily around the Dachstein Massif in the night from Christmas to Boxing day. Expect 10-30 centimeters, locally even 50 centimeters are possible. Boxing Dat could be a nice powder day in the Arlberg, but also for example in Zauchensee.
PA#4: what will it be?
The final calculations are different than the ones from yesterday and in line again with those of last weekend. In the final calculation we see a low pressure area coming in from the northwest. The wind will turn briefly to the southwest and then creates a southern Föhn in the night from Friday to Saturday. After that, it will turn to the northwest on Saturday and will bring snow to the northwest of the Alps. In this calculation, the area between Grenoble and the Arlberg will hit the jackpot and snow amounts between 30 and 70 centimeters are possible.
But...when the low pressure area passes to fast it will be stuck in the Po-valley and if that occurs, than the southern Alps will hit the jackpot. In both scenarios the northern Alps will get some snow after that. In short, in the final calculations, more snow is predicted for the northern French Alps, northern Switzerland and the far west of Austria and less snow in the Southern Alps. While the northern Alps in Austria might still get some snow after the initial snowfall in the northwest or the south ended. Tomorrow more about this thriller. PA # 4 is on its way... more details tomorrow!