Will it stay dry in the Alps?


By meteomorris on 2 November 2015 · 0

I asked you to do a snow dance for the Alps yesterday. The big question for today is: had the dances effect? Because the maps from yesterday weren't showing any snow for the next two weeks. Will this be the case again today? Well, there is some hope to be found on the maps. But it's all still very fragile, with that huge high pressure area nearby.

Winter has started in North America. The first videos of nice couloirs have been published and there is more to come. The Alps got hit in October, the Rockies in November. It's snowing in North America. And it's snowing hard.

In this forecast

  • Will it stay dry in the Alps?
  • What are the perspectives for the long term?
  • Where on the planet can you find King Winter at the moment?

Short term: mostly dry in the Alps

After Snowtober and the first PowderAlert for the Alps, it has been dry for a while. A high pressure area called Tomoka is dominating the weather in the Alps, and in the meanwhile a storm called Yorsch II is trying to invade the Alps. And that's pretty brave, but above all a mission impossible.

Tomoka vs. Yorsch II
Tomoka vs. Yorsch II

The front will arrive in the southern French Alps on Tuesday, but won't be visible on the maps anymore by Wednesday. A super high pressure areas dominates the weather in the Alps and it may even continue for a while. For how long? That's a good question. Even for scientists a high pressure area still raised a lot of questions. I couldn't answer all of them in the 25 years that I'm staring at weather maps. I just have work with the positive points that fortunately are visible on the maps.

Does the long term provide perspective?

Yes, because ultimately it will snow. Who does not remember the winter where tons of snow came down after a bizarre dry month of November four years ago? Ultimately, it will snow . The European ECMWF weather model shows that this won't happen over the next 240 hours, but GFS provides perspective and shows some precipitation somewhere between the 8th and the 11th. This could be a start. More about that tomorrow.

Where on the planet can you find King Winter at the moment?

Well, in a lot of places, but not in the Alps. Hokkaido got hammered last week. That's great news, especially because some parts of Japan might have to deal with higher temperatures this winter.

And winter started in North America as well. The jetstream found its way to the Rockies and our snowmaps will show some nice colours. Canada already got around 30-80 centimeters of freshies, but everybody in North America will get their share.

Lunch is ready in Whistler (c)Whistler-Blackcomb
Lunch is ready in Whistler (c)Whistler-Blackcomb

Storm depression will keep coming in this week. Although the weekend weather will get warmer, but it might appear that cold air will come in again next week.

I'll try to answer the question if GFS will be right and that there will be some snowfall next week tomorrow. And will the island of Hokkaido get their second dump of the season? And I'll give you some more details about all the snow that's coming down in North America.

Stay stoked
Morris


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