The comeback of winter - Part II


By meteomorris on 11 November 2015 · 0

I was talking about three positive points yesterday. In the end, they will beat that huge high pressure area that's dominating the weather in the Alps at the moment.

  • It's getting colder
  • The NAO index is getting less positive
  • The jetstream is moving south

Three positive points you can hold on to in this period without powder. They're opening lift after lift in North America and already have the second PowderAlert of the season, but we still have to be patient in Europe. At least in the Alps and the Pyrenees, because the conditions in Scandinavia are improving every day, as you can see on the snow maps. But let's have a look at that three positive points for the Alps.

1) It's getting colder

It finally gets colder. The temperature was much too high for the time of year and fortunately it will drop soon. Let's hope that the temperature will drop even further, because although the temperature will drop it's still above the long-calculated annual average. Below you can see the temperature drop (the red line) and the increasing chances of precipitation (the blue line). Mind you, this is particularly snowfall for the higher parts of the mountain.

Somewhere in the Alps
Somewhere in the Alps

2) The NAO index is getting less positive

I wrote an extensive story about the NAO index earlier. Well, the NAO index was very positive the last couple of days (in that case the line is above zero in the map below), and that keeps depressions at great distance from the Alps. But the NAO index is getting less positive and this means that there's some room for the depressions that want to bring some precipitation to the Alps. The high pressure area is going to lose its grip, so we just have to sit back, relax and see what will happen.

The NAO index is getting less positive
The NAO index is getting less positive

3) The jetstream is moving south

The jet stream marks the boundary between cold air in the north and warm air from the south. In addition, the jetstream is the main highway that storms use to reach the Alps. If the jet stream is north from the Alps, then the Alps not only have to deal with warm air, but they also miss all the storms. The jet stream creeps slowly but surely towards the Alps. Cold air is getting closer and so are the storms. But it could all be more convincing. The following map shows the jetstream. It is the bright red river focusing on the Alps.

The jetstream is heading for the Alps
The jetstream is heading for the Alps

Again, it could be more convincing, because the maps calculate some lousy weather where warm and cold air alternate. But at least that means snow in the high alpine in the 3rd and 4th week of November.

PA2 for Norway?

Meanwhile, the chances for a second PowderAlert for Norway are rising. It will snow intense the next couple of days and the temperatures are dropping. More about that on Friday.

Stay stoked!
Morris


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