Next week: northwest Stau!


By meteomorris on 18 February 2016 · 1

Around 20-50 cm, locally even 100 centimeters of snow came down on the border of Italy-Austria-Slovenia. Especially on Wednesday it snowed heavily. The sun will come out today and it will be a great day for riding powder. But the temperature will rise rapidly this weekend and subtropical air from the north of Africa is arriving in the Alps. This fortunately won't last long, because the current will turn to the northwest on Monday and that means that winter will be back! In this forecast:

  • Up to 1 meter of freshies on the border of Italy-Slovenia-Austria
  • Weak front on Thursday and Friday
  • Rising snowline on Saturday and warm on Sunday
  • PA #9 is coming up!
  • Warning: rising avalanche danger the next couple of days
  • PowderAdvice: go east

Up to 1 meter of freshies on the border of Italy-Slovenia-Austria

It's a bit of a drive, but a lot of snow came down in the southeast of the Alps. It snowed heavily on the border of Austria, Italy and Slovenia since Monday night. The sun is coming out today and with the higher temperatures coming in you don't want to wait that long to ride powder. Some images from that region:

Nassfeld
Nassfeld

Sella Nevea
Sella Nevea

Forni di Sopra
Forni di Sopra

Today will be a great day, but the weather during the weekend will be spring-like. The low temperatures will return next week and more snow is in the forecast.

Weak front on Thursday and Friday

A weak cold front will pass the northwest and north of the Alps on Thursday and Friday. It will bring somewhere between 5 to 20 cm of snow in 48 hours. The temperatures will be low. It won't be super deep, but enough to provide the snowpack with some extra freshies. It's not worth the drive though. The visibility will decrease the next 72 hours, so the conditions to go out on a tour won't be that good as well. The Alps are dealing with a mixture of clouds, some precipitation, sunshine and rapidly rising temperatures during the weekend.

Rising snowline on Saturday and warm on Sunday

A warm front approaches the Alps from the west on Saturday and the snow line will rise rapidly. I only expect some precipitation in the northern Alps and because the snow line will be deep in the valleys in the morning, but will rise to around 2000-2300 meters in the afternoon, it will be a tricky day. You can ride some freshies in the morning, but the snow will get pretty wet in the afternoon. Sunday will be quite warm, with temperatures rising to 18 degrees, but the cold temperatures will return on Monday.

Lokaal plus 10 degrees at 1400 meters on Sunday
Lokaal plus 10 degrees at 1400 meters on Sunday

Winter will return on Monday evening
Winter will return on Monday evening

PA #9 is coming up!

A northwest Stau with freshies for the northwest of the Alps is visible on the maps between Monday and Wednesday morning, but there's a chance that this snowfall will expand into the regions on the border of Italy, Slovenia and Austria. There's also a chance that it will (temporarily) get warmer from Tuesday, but PA #9 is on the map!

Warning: rising avalanche danger the next couple of days

The avalanche danger remains tricky. Already 38 people died in the Alps because of avalanches this winter. Especially since you can find that nasty old snow layer above 2200 meters in a lot of places in the Alps. It can be found pretty deep in the snowpack, but the recent wind transported so much snow that it might become a problem again. Wind also causes the dangerous wind-eroded snow and the shifting temperatures cause tensions in the snow cover. Unfortunately, the danger is hard to see with the naked eye. No matter how big the stoke is, decision methods and systematic filtering of the risks are the only ways to take calculated decisions. Always check the local avalanche forecast and adapt your plans to it. Avalanche beacon, shovel and probe are a MUST. If you don't have any knowledge, start working on it or go out with a mountain guide.

PowderAdvice: go east

It snowed heavily on the border of Austria, Italy and Slovenia. In the rest of the Alps it's a mix of sun and some scattered flurries. Therefore the following advice:

The temperatures will quite high on Sunday, so you're best bet will be the glaciers in Austria and Switzerland. If you want to go out on a tour, take car, the rising temperatures cause extra tension in the snow cover. Snow from the northwest will come in on Monday, so Tuesday will be ON in the northwest and north of the Alps. More details on Sunday!

Stay stoked
Morris!!

Comments


  • DWF
    Advanced
    DWF op 20 February 2016 · 11:29
    I would not rule out some fresh pow at altitude in the Southern Alps at the end of next week, but hey its a long way to next weekend. Faith riders!
    DWF

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