The meteorological autumn starts on the first of September. If you look closely you will notice that the leaves on the trees are already changing color and you can already smell the arrival of autumn in the early morning. The countdown to winter '16 -'17 has started. It will not be long until the first winter forecasts pop up. Speculations that promise a winter with snow in abundance based on some natural phenomena. Think about the length of a plant, the thickness of the polar ice, the number of mosquitoes etc. Yes, according to the "experts" nature is talking with us.
Sitting on his deck, enjoying the sunshine, dr. Gear found five reasons why winter '16 -'17 will be a big one. Sit back. Because this is going to be serious.
Britain is on its way to leave the EU. A small majority chose to say the EU goodbye after a heavy battle for votes. The heat was on in Britain and things needed to cool down a bit. The British economy is dropping and the pound lost some of it's value. According to some people, the Brexit also caused the abundant rainfall during spring. It's dry and sunny in the northwest of Europe and the moderate drop of temperature in the UK clearly indicates a winter colder than normal. Winter is in the lead. 1-0.
The heat is on in the US. Especially during debats. And sometimes, well 'you don't choose the right words' and you have to apologize. Things have to cool down a bit over there, but even though La Niña will pay the US a visit this winter, Dr. Gear hopes that the cooling down will start in time. Scientists are afraid that ENSO just can't stand the heat and if Trump will... well, than we might have one of the warmest winters in US history... 1-1.
The low interest rates and the improving economy are the drivers for the rising prices. According to Dr. Gear. Rising prices influence the way people make decisions. Low interest rates might just also be responsible for the global record heat. And people tend to make poor decisions when it's too warm (one of the reasons why Dr. Gear just loves to ride powder). The end of low interest rates is not yet in sight, and therefore the chances on a warm winter will increase. That's not good news. Really, it isn't. Winter is behind: 1-2.
Elon Musk is a busy man. His Tesla might not have the range for long road trips through the Alps yet, but it's improving and improving. His new batteries to be used in your own home might make us a bit less dependable on fossil fuels in combination with solar panels on the roof. Hopefully nature will recognize these signals and will reward us with lots of snow this winter. Dr. Gear can only conclude that Elon Musk has to be a skier. Or a snowboarder. Or both. Winter scores the equalizer: 2-2. Thanks Elon.
Switzerland has become a bit more expensive the last couple of years. Just a little bit. And that's great news. Less skiers and snowboarders will visit this beautiful country and that results in more untracked powder for freeriders. Now that sounds like a plan. Let's go to Switzerland this winter. Winter brings it home in the dying seconds of the game. 3-2.
The chance on a snowy winter is at least 60%. According to these criteria. But it could also be according to a plant. Or the long annual rainfall in a place like Panama City. Or the island of Palau. You see, even with some socio-economic parameters, it is possible to make some 'predictions'. If they'll be right in the end? No idea. But it's impossible to tell if we'll have a snowy winter about three months before winter actually starts. But that's my humble opinion.
Last winter has shown that you can even ride powder in winters that aren't that good. Yes, I can already tell now, sitting on my deck, that winter '16-'17 will be a good one. You want to know why and how? Well, because I'm flexible. Check out this article with 10 tips on how to plan your powder trip. Do you have some arguments why this winter will be a big one?