The Alps are on the verge of a turbulent week. Up to a meter of snow is in the forecast, but what will the snow line do? The battle for the snow line will erupt in the next couple of days and that has its consequences. The little storm I was talking about before is named 'Husch'. Remember that name when you spend some time in the high alpine in the western or southern Alps later this wind. Because storm Husch was the one who brought the base.
In this forecast:
The northern Stau will bring about 10-20 cm of freshies on Wednesday and Thursday. The east of Austria will get the most snow (Switzerland won't get that much) with a snow line dropping to 1000 meters or lower. Storm Husch will arrive in Europe right after. There will be a wind from the south(west) just east of Husch, bringing some warm air. But there will be a northern current bringing cold air west of Husch. The dividing line between that warm and cold air will be exactly above the Alps this weekend and this will result in very turbulent weather. We can get ready for the first Genoa-Low of this winter when the cold air reaches the Mediterranean in the night from Sunday to Monday. It will keep on snowing with falling temperatures accross the Alps.
I mentioned the fluctuating snow line this weekend yesterday. The models totally disagreed at first, but they are getting closer. The next couple of days will look like this. It will snow on the north side of the Alps on Wednesday and Thursday, it will snow lightly on the south side of the Alps on Thursday afternoon and evening. Particularly around the Ortler, south of the Gotthard and south of Gran Paradiso is it likely to snow. The real turbulent weather will arrive on Friday afternoon. Warm air is traveling to the Alps from the south and in the meantime, cold air from the north is trying to push the frontline back. This leads to the map below.
You can see red and blue lines going back and forth. This indicates that the front will travel slowely accross the Alps. The wind will come from the southwest at first, bringing warm aur. There is still cold air in the Po Valley and because we are dealing with so-called orographic cooling, the snow line will still be around 1000 meters and will go up to 2000 meters on Saturday. The snow line in the French northern Alps is pretty high at first (2400 meters). It will be at a lower altitude in the French southern Alps, but only in the regions close to the Ecrins and the Mont Viso.
Cold air from the northwest will come in during the night from Saturday to Sunday. The snow line will drop rapidly in the French Alps and the current will turn to the north. The only problem is that the front is moving from the west to the east very slow and it will take some time before the cold air will reach the east of the Alps.
The collision of warm and cold air will bring lots of snow to the main alpine ridge. The clouds are sandwiched from the north ánd the south. The Genoa-Low will arrive after Sunday and it will keep on snowing on the south side of the Alps.
More details tomorrow!
Stay stoked. Morris