Southern Stau: up to 4 meters of freshies??


By meteomorris on 18 November 2016 · 8

Will this dump bring 5 meters of freshies, like it did in the beginning of November 2014? If you read the forecast from two years ago and compare it to this one, you'll see lots of similarities. You can expect lots of freshies, but will we get four (or even five) meters of snow again? In this forecast:

  • Lower temperatures this weekend
  • PowderAdvice for the weekend
  • Southern stau in three stages for a week
  • The snow line will rise
  • Eventually two, locally even four meters of freshies

Lower temperatures this weekend

Although we are on the eve of a southern current (that will stick around for a while), the complete Alps will experience some colder air on Friday and Saturday. The cold front arrives on Friday and the current will temporarily turn to the northwest on the north side of the Alps. The current on the south side of the Alps is still coming from the southwest, so the Alps will get into a snow sandwich (snow from both the northwest and southwest). This will result in great conditions with freshies and sunshine on Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. Sunday will start sunny, but it will start to snow again in the French southern Alps and the northwest of Italy. The north side of the Alps will have to deal with a strong Föhn from the south, which you can see on the Föhn chart. The temperature will drop temporarily in the northern Alps on Saturday when the southern Föhn is not that strong, but expect it to come back even stronger on Sunday. It will start snowing in the south of the Alps.

PowderAdvice for the weekend

You'll find the best conditions (thanks to the Föhn wind in the north and the freshies from Friday and Saturday) on the south side of the Alps:

  • Passo Tonale
  • Diavolezza

But to be honest: save your euro's for better days. There will be lots of wind, rising temperatures, bad visibility and humidity in the air.

Southern stau in three phases for a week

Watch this movie I've published yesterday. The current turns to the south and that results in snow for the south side of the Alps. The snow will come down in three phases:

  • The snowfall from today will bring 10-30, locally 40 cm of freshies in the French southern Alps and the south side of the Alps.
  • Phase two will follow on Sunday. The most snow will come down in the French southern Alps, the Italian Piedmont and Lombardia, the Swiss Tessin and Ober Engadin. That's the area below:

Andermatt will also get some snow (it will be the only resort north of the main alpine ridge that will get significant snow). It will rain in the village, but expect lots of freshies on the Gemsstock. I expect the snow line to be around 1400 - 1800 meters during the second phase, but could be around 1200 meters at first. The snow line will be around 2000 meters by the end of the second phase. You can expect 50-120 cm, locally even 170 cm of freshies from Sunday to Tuesday.

  • The third phase will follow on Wednesday. The current will probably turn to the southeast and this will result in snowfall in the Piedmont. The snow line will be around 2000 meters and you can expect 50-120 cm, locally even 200 cm of freshies from Wednesday to Friday.

The snowfall and the amounts of snow during the first phase have a probability of 90%, the second phase has a probability of 80% and the snowfall of the third phase of 70%, but the amount of snow coming down could still fluctuate.

The snow line will rise

It sounds pretty good, but don't start waxing your board or ski's. This storm will bring plenty of snow to the high alpine, but also lots of rain and trouble on the roads. The intensity of the snowfall will also keep the lifts closed at the south side of the Alps, especially because the snow line starts rising. I'll keep an eye on the snowfall last week and I'll let you know where to go during the weekend of the 26th of November.

Eventually two, locally even four meters of freshies

Lots of freshies will come down above 2400 meters altitude south of the Gotthard, the Monte Rosa and the Gran Paradiso. Two meters of freshies is realistic, but locally it might be up to four meters!

More news about this storm on Monday!

Stay stoked.
Morris

Comments


  • Fluc
    Advanced
    Fluc op 18 November 2016 · 21:43
    @meteomorris, i can see on the map that this one will hit the bedretto valley (TI). What do you think will it be too warm there at the End of the week?
    Looking at a level from 1.400 - 2.400?
    *Ride hard, stay easy*
  • meteomorris
    Tourist
    meteomorris op 20 November 2016 · 17:52
    @Fluc123 , Yes it will hit the Bedretto Valley. Snowlevels will be low on Monday, but rising on Tuesday and Wednesday (snow level around 1900-2000 meters). The will drop again as of Thursday.
    May the powder be with you.
  • Fluc
    Advanced
    Fluc op 20 November 2016 · 21:37
    @meteomorris, Thanks for that advise! We'll have a look on the temperatures for next weekend
    *Ride hard, stay easy*
  • Hummingbird
    Tourist
    Hummingbird op 21 November 2016 · 12:41
    What will this do to the villages below 1500 meters? Will the snow totally dissapear with all the rain?
  • meteomorris
    Tourist
    meteomorris op 21 November 2016 · 15:30
    @Hummingbird, unfortunately yes.
    May the powder be with you.
  • meteomorris
    Tourist
    meteomorris op 21 November 2016 · 15:32
    Already up to 111 cm of fresh snow has been measured since Friday. On average 40-70 centimeters came down at the main spots. It is still snowing, so there is more to come above 2200 meters the next 96 hours.

    May the powder be with you.
  • yotsit
    Beginner
    yotsit op 21 November 2016 · 16:53
    There will be an update today? Any PA incoming? 😀
  • Fluc
    Advanced
    Fluc op 22 November 2016 · 16:54
    Perhaps the simplon area, rothwald or rosswald upwards > 2000m could be choice for the next weekend, what do you think? Lookinf forward to your advises on thursday, @meteomorris
    *Ride hard, stay easy*

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