All the snow for Austria?

The scenario of which I was afraid of yesterday is becoming reality. High pressure settles west of the Alps, but maintains its influence on the western part of the Alps. This reduces the chances of precipitation, and thus reducing the chance of snow for the French northern Alps and western Switzerland. In this forecast:

• First signs of winter on Friday
• Colder from Sunday and lots of snow for Austria
• What are the chances of snowfall for Switzerland and the French northern Alps?
• No precipitation for the rest of the Alps
• Dynamic long term

First signs of winter on Friday

There is already some snow in the forecast for Austria on Friday. It will probably go like this:

• 1. A strong current from the north (blue arrow on the map below) occurs between a high pressure area on the oceans and a storm depression above eastern Europe
• 2. This causes cold air from the north to reach the Alps (blue color on card).
• 3. This pushes moist air to the Alps
• 4. The clouds are forced to rise and that results in snowfall
     All of this is summarized on the image below (coming from our forecast page).

Because of the high pressure in the west (over 1030 hPa) there aren’t any clouds over there and obviously it won’t snow. It will probably snow in Austria on Friday. It will rain up to 1900 meters at first, but the snow line will drop towards 1000 meters later. You can expect 5-10, locally around 15 cm of fresh snow above 2000 meters. But again, there is a very strong wind from the north, so the snow in the high alpine will be transported.

Colder from Sunday and lots of snow for Austria

The sun will come out pretty much everywhere in the Alps on Saturday, but you can expect more cold air coming in from the north on Sunday. But that’s still more than 72 hours ahead and the details may still change. First the pattern:

• 1. Again, A strong current from the north (blue arrow on the map below) occurs between a high pressure area on the oceans and a storm depression above eastern Europe. The big difference with Friday is that the current is situated more to the north.
• 2. Cold air will reach the north to the Alps (blue colors on the map), but it is getting much colder now (even in the French northern Alps)
• 3. This pushes moist air to the Alps
• 4. The clouds are forced to rise and that results in snowfall
     All of this is summarized on the image below (coming from our forecast page).

The model calculates the most snow in Austria, but again it comes with a lot of wind and it’s also a bit cooler. The snow will fall deeper into the valleys, but the wind will be transporting a lot of snow in the high alpine.

What are the chances of snowfall for Switzerland and the French northern Alps?

When the front arrives there are certainly some chances of some light snow in the French northern Alps and Switzerland on Sunday. But because the current will turn to the north, I’m not expecting that much for the French northern Alps. That’s different for the resorts in Switzerland and especially the resorts north of the northern Swiss alpine ridge.

When the current stays like this, then there is a chance that more snow will come down on Sunday/Monday than the model now calculated. But well, it’s only Thursday and things could still change. Too bad that this snowfall comes with heavy winds in the entire Alps. The weather will be pretty harsh on the glacier slopes on Friday, Sunday and Monday. The sun will shine on Saturday. But with bad visibility, heavy winds and low temperatures I wouldn’t go to a glacier on Friday, Sunday and Monday.

No precipitation for the rest of the Alps

Don’t expect any precipitation in the other regions in the Alps. The current is coming from the north and there are heavy winds. All the other regions will have to be patient before winter really starts.

Dynamic long term

I’m quite positive for the long term. It looks like that the strong jet stream will be situated just west of the Alps, which could open the door to storm depressions in the western and southern Alps (but that’s 8-10 days and beyond). For the short and mid-term, all models hold on to a continuous current from the north and this results in the highest chances for snow for the resorts north of the main alpine ridge.

Stay stoked
Morris