Rising temperatures, but new storm in the forecast (PA#5)
It has been snowing in Austria since Sunday evening. A lot of snow came down especially in the east of Austria. On average between 25-50 cm, locally even more, but the wind is a showstopper. The wind was pretty strong above the tree line and it's still pretty strong today. The sun is shining in the rest of the Alps and mild air is coming in. In this forecast:
- Great conditions in large parts of the Alps
- Powder in the eastern Alps
- Rising temperatures (temporarily)
- A new storm coming in on Friday
- Long term: zonal or north?
Great conditions in large parts of the Alps
They are having a great start of the season in the northern Alps, on the border with Slovenia, Italy and Austria, in the French northern Alps and the in Italian Piedmont. The snow cover is (much) thicker than normal and more and more ski areas are opening their lifts. There are a lot of resorts open in Austria and Switzerland and more resorts will open this weekend. I'll give you an update on Thursday where you can find the best powder this weekend.
Powder in the eastern Alps
Clouds arrived in the Alps on the flanks of high pressure area Anke yesterday. This resulted in heavy snowfall, especially in the Salzburgerland and Steiermark. The isobars were fairly close to each other, so there also was a lot of wind. And 50 cm of fresh snow and a lot of wind results in a critical avalanche situation. There is a 'high avalanche danger level 3' above the tree line and you should ride with care. When you want to ride powder the next couple of days: always (as in: always) bring an avalanche beacon, shovel and probe, ride with friends, check your local avalanche forecast and avoid slopes that are too steep.
There are already ski areas in the eastern Alps where the lifts are running and where there's a good base below the tree line. Just have a look at the forecast map and you'll figure it out where they are.
Rising temperatures (temporarily)
The presence of high pressure area Anke results in rising temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday. A mild current from the southwest is allowed to reach the Alps, the jet stream is situated north of the Alps and storms are kept at a distance. But not for long. Storm Walter is ready to rumble as you can see on the map above. Thanks to a powerful high pressure area above Siberia Walter is forced to head to the Alps.
A new storm coming in on Friday
Cold air will reach the western Alps in the night to Friday and it starts to snow again. It is the 7th storm in six weeks and also the 6th storm that brings snow to the northern Alps. This means that there will be a PowderAlert for the northern Alps again this weekend. More details about that tomorrow, but you can start waxing again. It is not expected to be as sunny as last weekend in the northern Alps, but in return you get some fresh snow. Wax up!
Long term: zonal or north?
If you can't hit the snow this weekend and you're curious what the weather will be during Christmas: be patient. It's too far in the future to say something about it that actually makes sense. I will outline some scenarios for the long term tomorrow.
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Stay stoked Morris
Comments
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tarekbayazid op 5 December 2017 · 18:35Morris, hope you're well. Website looks awesome this year and really impressed with the accuracy of the longer range forecasting.
What do you think about Chamonix this weekend? It's the only place I have a crew to ride, so it's between there or staying home in London. Worth the pain of a weekend trip? Base looks okay at altitude, but Saturday could be total white-out and if the upper lifts don't open it'll be lame. Rumour in town is that they'll open front side of Le Tour on Saturday, but again with poor vis there's not much tree skiing to be had, so it could be a time waster. Let me know if any advice please. I don't need an epic mid-winter powder trip (yet!), but some good season-opening skiing would be nice.
Thanks a million. -
Expertmeteomorris op 6 December 2017 · 09:58@tarekbayazid Thanks! There is a lot of snow coming in as of Friday, but you are right that the base layer at the lower parts is still pretty thin. With two storms moving in (Friday-Saturday and again on Sunday) the window for a bit of sun and a blue sky will be rather small and it all depends on the timing of the storms.
Don't know what you will be doing in London this weekend, but I would prefer a day in the snow 😉
There is chance that the sun will come through Saturday afternoon (and even sunday morning) and if so... it will be great.
It all depends on your agenda... But as you may know "A powder day keeps the doctor away"... -
tarekbayazid op 6 December 2017 · 11:44Thanks Morris. Appreciated as always. Will wait for today's update later just in case any last minute surprises, and then pull the trigger on my flights 😉
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Brock22 op 6 December 2017 · 13:52Interested to know what will happen to the snow pack.
Warm weather and then a dump of fresh snow. What will this do to the snow pack? If the temp falls slowly I guess the new snow will bond to the existing snow pack but if there is a sudden drop in temperature before the snow falls then the surface of the existing snow pack may crust up creating a sliding surface for the new snow to fall on. Is this right?
Cheers
James -
Brock22 op 6 December 2017 · 13:52Drive through the tunnel to Courmayeur for the trees.
@tarekbayazid Thanks! There is a lot of snow coming in as of Friday, but you are right that the base layer at the lower parts is still pretty thin. With two storms moving in (Friday-Saturday and again on Sunday) the window for a bit of sun and a blue sky will be rather small and it all depends on the timing of the storms.
Don't know what you will be doing in London this weekend, but I would prefer a day in the snow 😉
There is chance that the sun will come through Saturday afternoon (and even sunday morning) and if so... it will be great.
It all depends on your agenda... But as you may know "A powder day keeps the doctor away"... meteomorris op 6 Dec 2017 09:58
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Expertmeteomorris op 7 December 2017 · 07:58@Brock22 In a sense you are right. It looks like Friday morning will be a tad warmer. The same applies for Sunday/Monday.
But it is hard to predict what exactly will happen within the snowpack: "Since ages past in avalanche lore, the opinion was handed down that a big temperature change during heavy snowfall (regardless whether cold following warm or vice versa) had a beneficial influence on the avalanche situation. In fact, this is the case only under certain, very specific conditions. Far more often, such a temperature change has a negative effect, since it enhances the faceting of snow crystals inside the snowpack, as a rule leading to the formation a thin, weak layer which is highly prone to triggering. Such layers are often found in south facing terrain. They are highly treacherous, not least because immediately following the snowfall they don’t yet exist, but form only over the course of subsequent days." (source: https://lawine.tirol.gv.at/en/basics/dangerpatterns/...)
These days I stick to the advice given by the local avalanche services. Especially early season.
@Brock22 @tarekbayazid Courmayeur isn't a real alternative at the moment. Normally I would advice Courmayeur but due to the dominant NW airflow Courmayeur hasn't got a thick base layer yet. But with the jetstream turning west this might change significantly the upcoming week.
@tarekbayazid Saturday there is room for the sun in Cham. The same applies for Sunday morning. Saturday will be bitter cold although.