PA #11: deep winter from Friday, but too warm after Sunday

The weather in Europe is dominated by super storm Evi. There is a weather alert in a lot of countries and there's a warning for strong wind and a lot of snow. You can check all the warnings on meteoalarm.eu. The avalanche danger in the northwest of the Alps will rise (or is already) HIGH right now. This will be a something to have a close look at when the temperature temporarily rises on Thursday and the snow will become a bit heavier. Fortunately it will get colder again, it will start snowing and the wind won't be that strong anymore. In this forecast:

• Super storm Evi
• Temporarily rise in temperature on Thursday
• Much colder on Friday
• HIGH avalanche danger
• Where to go?
• Long term: rising temperatures (and snow line)

Super storm Evi

I already wrote a lot about super storm Evi yesterday. Check out [this forecast] (https://wepowder.com/en/forum/topic/253438) for all the details. In short, it comes down to this:

• Incoming warm front and lots of snow above 1200-1500 meters on Tuesday. The most snow came down in the northern French Alps, western Wallis, the Gotthard region and Vorarlberg.
• The cold front came in (and a strong wind) last night. You can expect continuous snowfall with the current coming from the northwest on Wednesday. You can expect the most snow in the northern French Alps, the west of Switzerland, everything north of the northern Swiss alpine ridge, Vorarlberg and the north stau areas in the Salzburgerland and Styria.
• The temperatures will rise on Thursday and you can expect a lot of wind and a rising snow line. These high temperatures are the result of a warm front, which will result in a current that'll turn to the southwest and will bring warm air to the Alps. You can check that out on the maps below. The red arrow represents the incoming higher temperatures. The blue arrow represents the cold air that is expected in the night to Friday.

The higher temperatures on Thursday will temporarily result in a rising snow line and this means that the moist air won't improve the tree runs. So it's far from perfect. The wind is coming from the southwest and is still pretty strong.

• The temperature will drop again on Friday, but the wind is still really strong and you can expect snow deep into the valleys in the northern Alps.
• You can expect continuous snowfall with a snow line deep into the valleys in the northwest of the Alps on Saturday and Sunday.

• You can expect about 100-150 cm, locally even 200 cm of fresh snow in the northern French Alps and western Switzerland. In the rest of the northern Alps this will be about 20-50 cm, locally 80 cm.

Take care: HIGH avalanche danger

Lots of fresh snow, fluctuating temperatures and a lot of wind. That is a cocktail that guarantees a rapidly rising avalanche danger. Add that a considerable layer of surface hoar has developed in many places in the Alps the last few days and all conditions for a very tricky situation are there. The avalanche danger is pretty critical, so take it easy! I still have some additions to make a choice where to go:

• Choose resorts with lots of tree runs. There is sometimes less wind in the forests lower on the mountain.
• Stay away from those parts of the mountain where larger, open and steep faces are located, because they are now extremely dangerous
• Listen to snow patrol and read the avalanche forecast!

Where and when to go?

Wednesday is a great day for tree runs. Forget about Thursday (rising temperatures) and wait for the cold front that'll come in on Friday. Ride powder below the tree line. It will be quite dangerous above the tree line. Stay away from the faces that are too steep and pick a face that's not that steep with trees. You'll find plenty of them in the northwest. The wind will calm down on Saturday and Sunday and it's still snowing. There's a 'tree run alert' for the northwest of the Alps this weekend. Think about tree runs in the northern French Alps, the west and north of Switzerland and Vorarlberg.

Long term: milder and rising snow line

Do you still don't know if you should go or not? I would go. Friday, Saturday and Sunday will be great days. The temperature will rise after that and the snow line will rise again.

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Stay stoked, Morris