Spring in the northern Alps, snow for the southern Alps

Spring in the northern Alps, snow for the southern Alps

It is Snowvember, the month in which a good base can be formed for the rest of the season. There are already considerable amounts of snow in the high alpine, especially on the south side of and in the main alpine ridge. The current will remain southern in the coming week. This results in snow for the high alpine on the south side of the main alpine ridge, while it will feel like Spring in the valleys on the northern side of the Alps. In this forecast:

  • A lot of snow in parts of the high alpine in the southern Alps
  • First look back at the winter forecast and the role of El Niño
  • Dominant southern current for the time being
  • More snowfall in the high alpine in the southern Alps
  • Tuesday up to +23 degrees in ‘Föhn-valleys’ in the northern Alps
  • Long term: no sign of winter yet

Up to 5 meter of fresh snow in parts of the high alpine in the southern Alps

Crazy amounts of snow came down in parts of the Alps last week. In particular (from east to west) south and around the Brenner pass, around the Ortler (Passo Stelvio closed earlier due to too much snow), the southern Engadin (Corvatsch and Diavolezza), the Gotthard region (Andermatt, Airolo), around the Simplon pass (San Domenico, Rothwald, Saas Fee) and the Monte Rosa (Macugnga, Zermatt-Cervinia and Monte Rosa ski), the Gran Paradiso and the bordering regions with the French Haute Maurienne recorded huge amounts of snow. San Domenico is already working hard on the new season.

503 cm of fresh snow came down in a week’s time around the Gotthard and the snow cover is already up to 250 cm thick. There also was a lot of snow around the Monte Rosa. At the Rifugio Zamboni at 2070 m. altitude there is already a snow cover that is 191 cm thick. It’s the blue area in the map below where a lot of snow has fallen above 2000-2400 meters.

Lots of snow in the high alpine
Lots of snow in the high alpine

First look back at the winter forecast and the role of El Niño

It’s November 5th and it’s been snowing heavily since the last week of October. It’s a nice moment to look back on some seasonal forecasts. Meteo France assumed that autumn would be too wet in southern Europe and rather dry in the north. They seem to have been right. The long-term model of [the ECMWF predicted an autumn that was milder, but that would be with more precipitation for the southern Alps] (https://wepowder.com/en/forum/topic/258668) than normal. It is still very early, but the reality is in line with the prediction right now.

Even more interesting is the scientific article that was published in July that focuses on the relationship between El Niño and the European winter. In particular, the precipitation is relevant for us in this case. Because if there is evidence that El Niño provides more snow then that would be great news. There’s no correlation for the winter months, but there is for autumn. In November in particular, an El Niño is much wetter than normal on the southern side of the main alpine ridge. And that is exactly how November started. If this pattern continues like this, then it’s promising for the main alpine ridge and the areas to the south. (more info: click here)

(c) Martin P. King
© Martin P. King

Dominant southern current for the time being

With storm depressions above or to the west of Ireland, the south to southwestern current in the Alps will remain dominant for the coming week. This usually means instability on the south side of the Alps and a Föhn and milder temperatures on the northern side of the Alps. Only when the storm depressions succeed in reaching the European mainland there will be room for colder polar air to move to the Alps.

For now, the Alps will have to deal with snowfall for the high alpine on the south side of the main alpine ridge. The snow comes down above 2000 meters (because of the mild temperatures), but the snow line may drop later. You can follow the current forecasts and details on our forecast page. The forecasts for the first few days are free. If you want to look into the future, [wePowder Pro] (https://wepowder.com/nl/pro) is the service for you. For the price less than a day pass you won’t miss a dump again this season.

Snow for the southern Alps
Snow for the southern Alps

Tuesday up to +23 degrees in ‘Föhn-valleys’ in the northern Alps

Snow in the south often means a Föhn storm in the north. The current is coming straight from the south today (Monday) and Tuesday. This results in a strong Föhn. As a result, the temperature can rise to +23 degrees on the northern side of the Alps today and Tuesday.

It feels like summer in Kitzbühel
It feels like summer in Kitzbühel

Long term: no sign of winter yet

A look at the plots shows that the models are still searching for winter. It remains too warm for the time of year with the most snow for the high alpine the coming week. No weather for to make technical snow and so it will remain to look like summer in large parts of the low and mid-mountain ranges of the Alps. If the long-term forecasts of the aforementioned models are correct, this may take a long time.

Too mild according to ECMWF
Too mild according to ECMWF

Stay stoked,
Morris

meteomorris

Replies

Expert
meteomorrisAuthor5 November 2018 · 16:41

More than 5 meters of fresh snow, that accumulated into a bit less than a 3 meter thick snowpack. The Gotthard is definitely one of the snowiest regions of the Alps.

https://cdn.wepowder.com/site/forum/14/daa258d25b264542fde7c1c08578ebc2_schermafbeelding_202018_11_02_20om_2007_21_45.png?width=800

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Beginner
michaelengelvonkaspaAuthor11 November 2018 · 11:30

A question for Swiss SLF people, is the station next to Passo di Cavanna representative for this area? . Or it just accumulate more drift snow with south storm because of direct surrounding? I mean this snow depth can be founded on the region at similar altitude? Or that’s just a little Hotspot for South storms?

Expert
scotty9Author11 November 2018 · 18:38

Was in Andermatt today, there’s a very impressive snow depth for start of November in the high alpine. Plenty lines already skiable. Different story as you drop altitude but above about 2500m there’s definitely been a lot.

Tourist
ecsjonesproAuthor12 November 2018 · 10:27

long range not looking great right now in the alps…

Expert
meteomorrisAuthor12 November 2018 · 15:59

@@Scotty9 thanks. I got more reports like yours coming in. @escjones you’re right: https://wepowder.com/en/forum/topic/260465 @@michaelengelvonkaspa This station is pretty good representing the conditions overthere at the moment. This is the Gotthard, the most consistent and snow rich region of the Alps. They pick up snow from the south, west and north. See also the research that Isotta, F.A. et al did and published in 2014 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.3794

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Tourist
NicZHAuthor12 November 2018 · 19:42

scotty 9, i would like to be optimistic like you but correct me if I am wrong : Andermatt has 2 slopes opened only and off piste is not possible given no snow in the valley…

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