I announced a PowderAlert for the Simplon-Gotthard-Ticino-Engadine region yesterday. Storm Cornelius is going to take care of some fresh snow there. And then there are more storms in the forecast for the Alps. Let it snow!
Peak season is behind us, there is a good base pretty much everywhere and there is a lot of snow in the forecast. It's the base for one or more great powder trips the coming days. The fourth ingredient is flexibility. By that I mean: make sure you can actually go and be flexible with your accommodation. Don't book your accommodation too early. You should definitely read the article: 'How to plan your powder trip: 10 tips'.
Check out the picture above for today and Thursday. A strong southern current ensures the supply of mild and humid air from the south. First of all, we see snow in the areas to the south and east of the Ecrins. I expect the snow line to be lower at first in the Piedmont (around 1100-1400 meters) and higher in the Hautes Alpes (1700-2000 meters) and that it will be around 1300-1500 meters everywhere in the night to Thursday.
The snowfall spreads to the north of the Piedmont, the Simplon area, the north of Ticino and the south side of the Gotthard to the southern Engadine in the course of the afternoon. The snow line is around 1000-1200 meters near the main alpine ridge, in the pre-Alps around 1400 meters. Because of the enormous Stau and orographic cooling, I expect the most snow here between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon. The snow line will start to rise a little in the course of Thursday, because the southern current will kinda stop and the cooling down due to extreme Stau will then disappear. There will be a cold front that brings snow to the northwest of the Alps in the course of the Thursday afternoon.
Thus it looks like this up to and including Friday:
It's ON on Thursday afternoon and Friday in:
The jet stream has found its way back to the Alps and storm Cornelius is the first storm to visit the Alps. According to the bigger weather models, at least 3 to 4 storms with significant snowfall pass through the Alps during the next 10 days. You'll always have to be careful with a forecast for 10 days for a jetstream that's on fire. Small changes can have significant consequences for the storm paths. The quantities and especially the places where the most snow falls will certainly change during the coming calculations. Be flexible and book your accoommodation as late as possible.
Saturday starts cold in the morning, but it gets warmer soon. There is a cold front in the forecast for the northwest with snow for the northwest of the Alps on Sunday (timing may change) with significant snowfall as a result. There are storms in the forecast with snow from the southwest and the northwest as well next week. Wax up, get your storm gear ready and get ready for a wonderful trip. Winter is far from over.
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Stay stoked, Morris