The Indian Summer that I mentioned in my previous weather report provided beautiful, dry and sunny weather in the Alps. This week will be a bit more volatile. A storm with the name Sebastien is located above northwestern Europe and this will bring some snow above 2500 meters on Tuesday. The sun returns on Wednesday and Thursday, but it will change again with snow above the tree line from Friday. However, there is still no question of anything that looks like winter. The temperature is just too high for that.
Snow for the highest peaks on Tuesday
Storm Sebastien enters the northwest of the Alps from the west today. The associated front ensures an increasing southwest wind and precipitation. The snow line is high at first (around 2700 meters), but drops towards 1800-2000 meters by night. This will ensure beautiful pictures on the highest peaks on Wednesday when the sun comes out again in the morning hours.
Some sunshine for a while
Wednesdays and Thursdays are sunny again under the influence of a high-pressure area. In the meantime, a new storm is warming up on the Atlantic Ocean. This storm, which is large in scope and considerably deepened, looks more intense than currently calculated. If storm Thilo could move to the east in a straight line, the Alps could prepare themselves for a serious storm. But a very powerful high-pressure area keeps the storm away so that the cold air that tries to move west (left of the storm) to the south does not reach the Alps.
Weekend: no cold air, but some snow for the high alpine
Thilo may look threatening, but is more like a barking dog that doesn’t bite. The core is still on the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday and with a western current a front is sent to the Alps, but it doesn’t get really cold. We only see the snow line temporarily dropping towards the 1800-2000 meters in the northwest and west of the Alps. In the eastern half of the Alps it remains mild under the influence of a southern Föhn. It is possible that it will get a little colder after the weekend, but that is pure speculation.
The snow map above looks better than it is, because:
- Glaciers have little snow left;
- A lot of wind this weekend
- Relatively mild
Those who want to ride on a glacier this weekend will have to fine tune. With so much dynamics in the atmosphere, it is difficult to predict what it will be like. For the time being this seems to be the case:
Saturday:
- Western Alps: snowfall and clouds. This means bad weather on the glaciers and no visibility.
- Eastern Alps: southern Föhn, strong wind and mild on the north side of the Alps.
Sunday:
- Western Alps: the sun might come out once in a while, but still very uncertain
- Eastern Alps: first Föhn, possibly clouds from the west.
In short, winter is not kicking in yet, but please keep in mind that’s only October. The snow better falls in November. The sun is lower and the chance that it will make it till the start of winter is a lot bigger.
Stay stoked,
Morris