PA#1: Snow for the west, later for the southwest of the Alps
SNOWvember is coming to an end, but before we enter December there will first be a dump for the northwestern Alps. Then we can look again at the southern Alps again, because December starts with a dump for the southwest and south of the Alps. The northern Alps thus remain out of reach again. But those who look very far into the future will see that we can hope for a northern stau around or after the 6th of December. In this forecast:
- Western Stau up to and including Friday
- PowderAlert #1: no precipitation on Saturday
- Southwestern Stau on Sunday
- Distant future: finally a northern Stau?
Western Stau up to and including Friday
Although there's been a lot of reporting about the recent snowfall in the Alps in the media, the snow cover in large parts of the French Northern Alps is not that good. The same applies to the west and north of Switzerland and the north of Austria. Snowfall in western and northern Switzerland is even far below the annual average.
This will change over the next three days. Ex-hurricane Sebastian moves into Europe with initially mild temperatures, but it will be clearly colder from Friday. The snow line is therefore initially around 1800 to 2000 meters, but is already dropping towards 1300-1600 meters on Thursday to end up around 1000 meters on Friday. Therefore, mainly snow for the high alpine at first, but later also for the mid-mountains. Expect 50-70 cm of fresh snow, locally even a meter above 2100 meters up to and including Friday. Most snow falls in the real western Stau areas. The more east you go (Haute Maurienne, Haute Tarentaise and Haute Valais the less snow will fall down. The wind is very powerful from time to time so that the snow will be transported around ridges and peaks.
Areas such as Val d'Isère-Tignes, Bonneval sur Arc, Val Cenis and Valfréjus have previously benefited from the snow from the east and are now getting some more. In particular Val d'Isère-Tignes will be very good on Saturday, the other areas are still closed. But for more westerly areas such as Les Sybelles, Les 3 Vallées, Le Grand Massif or Les Portes du Soleil, this is actually the first good storm in weeks. Last week's retour d'est has blown the snow from the slopes there. The sharks are therefore never deep and it is really still pre-season there. Whoever wants to ride powder this weekend in the French Northern Alps and western Switzerland is best off in the areas in the main alpine ridge, where we are already in pre-winter.
PowderAlert #1: no precipitation on Saturday
Under a back of high pressure it will be dry on Saturday. Although there are still clouds here and there, higher up the mountain the sun is shining. With the fresh snow it is really nice to ride. For inspiration I have compiled a list of areas where snow has fallen, where it will still come down the next few days and where the lifts are running. Tips for the coming weekend are:
The best option by far is:
- Val d'Isère-Tignes, solid base and lots of snow in the coming days, some sun on Saturday
Good options are:
- Montgenèvre, solid base, Wednesday + Thursday snow, Friday wind, Saturday sun, Sunday snow again
- Matterhorn Ski Paradise solid base, nice weather on Saturday, snowfall on Sunday
- Monte Rosa solid base, nice weather on Saturday, snowfall on Sunday
- St. Moritz, solid base, nice weather on Saturday, snowfall on Sunday
Southwestern Stau on Sunday
A back of high pressure on Saturday, but a new storm depression in the west is ready and on Sunday it will arrive at the Alps. With a western to southwestern current, a lot of snow is then coming to the Alps again.
With a southwestern current it is usually the French Southern Alps and the areas south of the Gotthard and the Engadin that get a lot of snow. The snow line is initially around 1600 meters, but drops towards 1000 meters during the day. And because areas such as Isola 2000, Puy Saint Vincent and Montgenèvre already have a solid base, the lifts run there on Sunday and the larches go quite high, a tree run may already be possible. Keep in mind that the snow cover between the trees is still thin and that branches and other bushes pose a serious threat to you.
Distant future: finally a northern Stau?
The social channels of the ski resorts in the Northern Alps might make you believe differently, but it's not that good in a lot of places yet. Only inneralpine areas and the main alpine ridge have enough snow there, but the Föhn of last weekend had its influence. On piste fine, off piste it could be better.
But in the very distant future a northern Stau is coming in. The models have been hinting on a northern stau for a few days from the first weekend of December.
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Stay stoked, Morris
Comments
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powstria op 27 November 2019 · 14:52Hi Morris
What do you think about Ischgl/Samnaun for Saturday. Your forecast on the homepage suggest 50-80cm vs only 10-15 of other forecasts.
Many thanks in advance -
Advancedthomasweller op 27 November 2019 · 15:04Verbier...what are the best systems to bring the resort snow. Obviously the storms from the south not. And even this one from the west is only bringing 20-30cm at best. Is it simple the strength of western storms that make the biggest impact. I´ve tried to find resources on specifically the Verbier area but have had no luck. Any insight would be greatly appreciated...
T.
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Expertmeteomorris op 27 November 2019 · 15:50@powstria,
No I don't expect 50-80 cm. There is a hitch in the algorithm which we are investigating at the moment. Will be fixed asap..
The snowpack at Ischgl/Samnaun is still pretty thin and off-piste is a challenge (loads of rocks still not covered). Where are you based? Maybe I can love you some tips where to score Saturday-Sunday.
@thomasweller, west to wnw is the best.
This system has a bit of south in it and the Mont Blanc will block this.
But Thursday and Friday should bring significant snow (but never as much as Les Marecottes or PDS). But the good thing about Verbier is that due to the inneralpine climate snow will be better conserved than in PDS -
Advancedthomasweller op 27 November 2019 · 18:18It’s so incredibly interesting how in Zermatt it’s super windy and only a bit of snow, over the ridge in Cervinia super foggy but incredibly deep and just 40km NW in Verbier all the snow is melting. Mother nature sure has a way of driving me crazy. We have two weeks in Verbier in January and I’m getting anxious watching the snowline disappear again...
By the way, do you have any opinions on Judah Cohen’s blogs on the Arctic Oscillation? I’m an amateur weather-nut and find his (and your) analysis always super interesting...
Thanks for the info! T. -
Advanced
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powstria op 27 November 2019 · 18:26@powstria,
No I don't expect 50-80 cm. There is a hitch in the algorithm which we are investigating at the moment. Will be fixed asap..
The snowpack at Ischgl/Samnaun is still pretty thin and off-piste is a challenge (loads of rocks still not covered). Where are you based? Maybe I can love you some tips where to score Saturday-Sunday.
Thank you for the insights on the algorithm. Based around Tirol.
*message edited by powstria op 27 Nov 2019 18:26 (1% bewerkt) -
Expertmeteomorris op 27 November 2019 · 21:31@powstria sulden am ortler might be a good idea. Or the Corvatsch.
@Trabateo, there is significant snow in the forecast for Livigno for Sunday ands Monday. Tuesday probably sunny and fresh pow!
@thomasweller in the new wePowder guide we provide you with some data which wil give you some insights in the alps and local weather.
Yes, I do know Judah Cohen and do read his blogs occasionally. His blogs are mainly focused at the (food) investor markets but give us some ideas about global weather patterns which can be useful for us. -
ExpertKingbolo op 27 November 2019 · 22:10What about Courmayeur (Hellbroner) ? They open on satursday, on it should receive in the next days a good amount of pow. With sun on satursdayz
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Expertscotty9 op 27 November 2019 · 22:19What about Courmayeur (Hellbroner) ? They open on satursday, on it should receive in the next days a good amount of pow. With sun on satursdayzKingbolo op 27 Nov 2019 22:10
The hellbronner is always good, just watch the crevasses -
Advancedthomasweller op 28 November 2019 · 07:23I think his theories on October snow cover advance in Siberia and the subsequent impact on global winter’s interesting but I’m not qualified enough to know how accurate he’s been over the years which is why I ask. Thanks.
Awaiting our WePowder guides anxiously, hope they arrive by Christmas...
T. -
Expertmeteomorris op 28 November 2019 · 08:49Here you find more about this theory: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-015-1696-3...
It's all about the impact from early snow on the Arctic Oscillation. -
niko.chx op 28 November 2019 · 11:19@Kingbolo @scotty9 Bad news about Helbronner! The stairs leading to Glacier de Toule are now closed (as reported on November 26). That leaves only steep couloirs and faces in the area and that is less than ideal after strong winds - there are/will be many accumulations formed during Wednesday-Friday. I was thinking of skiing there on Saturday but now that's not a sensible option any more 😞 -
Advancedthomasweller op 28 November 2019 · 11:29Fascinating...I love how one thing leads to another. Warming Ocean temperatures, leads to less Arctic Ice, leads to greater storms over Siberia, leads to more snow over Siberia, leads to greater high pressure over Russia, leads to blocking highs over Eastern Europe, leads to hopefully LOTS OF SNOW for the Alps. Ok, a bit simplistic but just goes to show how much more research is needed and how Climate Change is affecting all of us. Scary and interesting.
Appreciate the link!
T