PA#16: where to go? (Read carefully!)

Powder Alert#15 is ON. Large parts of the Alps got significant amounts of fresh snow and during the course of Tuesday the sun came out in more and more places. Today starts sunny, but at the end of the day a new front follows from the west. The start of a new storm cycle and also the start of Powder Alert#16. In this article:

• Retrospect: powder alert#15 was and is still ON
• Wednesday: a sunny day
• A new storm cycle
• Thursday: the snow map vs the weather map (read carefully!)
• Friday and beyond
• Where to go?
• Long-term

Retrospect: powder alert#15 was and is still ON

Powder Alert#15 brought the predicted snow and in many places the amounts I had predicted came down. It always feels good when a plan comes together. On the other hand: It wasn’t a very complex alert and whoever read my forecast well knew where to go. Koen Bakkers shared the video below with me and through my Insta I received more images from powderchasers.

But with the amounts of snow and the strong wind from time to time made locally the avalanche danger went up to HIGH. 4 on a scale of 5. In the meantime, this has dropped to 3, which is still a level in which a mistake can have consequences. But with the right knowledge and by checking your local avalanche message daily you can definitely find some safe lines.

North of the Mont Blanc region, bizarre quantities of snow fell and the areas on the border with France and Switzerland are in very good shape at the moment. And for those who want to go snowkiting: the col du lauteret is loaded with snow.

Wednesday: a sunny day, new storm cycle moving in

Today is a sunny day in the Alps, but towards the end of the afternoon higher clouds move in from the southwest which marks the start of a new storm cycle. A set of storm depressions is on track to the Alps and they will produce significant snow the upcoming days.

Thursday: the snow map vs the weather map (read carefully!)

I often notice that a lot of people around me tend to look only at the snow map and then drive to those places where the most snow falls. And for those who don’t know the Alps well, there is the TOP 50 list which gives you an idea where to expect the biggest accumulations.

But it is not always the case that those places with the biggest accumulations on the snow forecast maps are the best place to go that dat. Thursday is such a day. Above you see the snow forecast map and the TOP 15 for Thursday. The map and the TOP 50 list shows the snowfall from Thursday from 0.00 to 23.59. But to be honest: I would definitely remove three-quarters from that list as an option for Thursday. Why? Well that’s the story behind the centimeters.

Above the weather map for Thursday. An active storm depression is on its way to the Alps. First of all, a warm front moves into the Alps on Thursday (the red line). With a southwestern current, moist air is pushed into the Alps. Because it is a warm front, the temperature is relatively high, certainly in the areas where the clouds miss the Stau effect.

On the other hand we normally see that the snow line in the areas where the southwestern Stau is at its maximum the temperatures will drop due to orographic cooling. As a result the temperatures will drop and significant snow is to be expected. In this case I do mean the following areas:

1. south of the French Ecrins mountain range
2. south of Mont Blanc mountain range and
3. southwest of the Alpennordhang in Wallis.

Not only do these areas see more snow it also will be waycolder here. Which you can see on the map below.

So Thursday it will be mild with some local snow, a lot of wind and a high snow line in the French Northern Alps and the rest of the Northern Alps. At the same time conditions will be ideal in the regions mentioned above. certainly in the forests.

Only after the southwestern wind drops and the cold front (the blue line on Thursday’s weather map) moves into the Alps conditions will be good in the French Northern Alps. But since this cold front will move in by the end of the day when the lifts are already closed this will be to late to enjoy an excellent powder day. That is why three-quarters of the areas in the TOP 15 list above for Thursday are not an option for me.

Friday and beyond

In the night to Friday, the cold front enters the west of the Alps and conditions will rapidly improve in the French Northern Alps and western Switzerland. At the same time, the moves front moves further to the east and continues to snow well in the north of Italy.

![Snow forecast until Friday] (https://cdn.wepowder.com/site/weblog/2/27997.jpg?w=1024)

On Saturday the upper airflow has turned North and the southwestern Föhn than has become a North Föhn. This assures snow fall in the Northern Alps on Saturday and a strong Northern wind in the southern Alps. As a result snow drifts may cause storm slabs in the Southern Alps. Sunday the sun should come through again in the complete Alps

Where to go?

Now that you know the story behind the centimeters, I have written the ideal powderchase for you:

Thursday:

• The northern French Hautes Alpes
• The northwest of the Aosta

Friday:
Still good conditions:

• The northern French Hautes Alpes
• The northwest of the Aosta
  But watch out for the wind. Many storm slabs will be formed.

Now good conditions as well in:

• all areas in the French Northern Alps
• Western and Northern Switzerland

Saturday and Sunday:
Still good conditions:

• The northern French Hautes Alpes

• The northwest of the Aosta
  But watch out for the wind. Many storm slabs will be formed.

• all areas in the French Northern Alps

• Western and Northern Switzerland

Now good conditions as well in:

• The Swiss Alpine Nordhang
• Vorarlberg

Or plotted on a map:

1. Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday (watch out for the north wind)
2. Friday, Saturday and Sunday
3. Saturday and Sunday

Long-term

If we look further into future then according to the most important weather models we will start next week relatively cold with some snow for the northwest and then milder with snow at a higher altitude for the Northwest.

In short, good prospects for the next 10 days. If you have urgent questions, ask them here or via my insta or facebook pages. I will do my best to answer asap.

Your Powfinder, Morris