October starts as September ended: with a new dump. The summer was dry in the Alps, but this is now somewhat compensated by Mother Nature. From Saturday, cold air will flood the Alps with a lot of snow, even into the valleys. The snowfall map for the coming days says enough.
A lot of snow already fell into the higher valleys around September 25th, the second snowfall last weekend mainly brought wind and rain and now it is again a lot of snow in the forecast. The difference with last weekend is that the air is much colder, which is likely to cause the snow to fall deep into the valleys. The current is northwest and thus the snow line drops to 500 to 800 meters and it can become feel like winter. Every seasoned freerider also knows that this snowfall at the end of September / beginning of October is mainly cosmetic fun. In the valleys everything is quickly gone and only on the higher glaciers does the snow have a chance. That's good after such a dry summer.
Where will that snow fall this weekend and how about the amounts? The greatest chance of a lot of snow - as our own weather model clearly shows - is Austria and the entire north side of the Alps. A minority of the models focus on Slovenia and the south of Austria.
In any case, it will be considerably colder than last weekend when all the precipitation came down as rain, causing so much damage. Now the precipitation is bound in a snow cover and less extreme amounts fall and the chance of mudslides is also a lot smaller. The cold air is already pouring in on Saturday and is expected to hang over the Alps until at least mid-next week. The pressure system that is responsible for this continues to spin over Central Europe. The chance of snow therefore persists, although the activity slowly disappears.
Based on the temperature forecast at approx. 1500 meters (the temperature on the 850 hPa) you can see how the cold air flows in on Saturday and takes over the Alps for a short time. All precipitation that falls from then on can come down as snow above 500 to 800 meters.
The snow that will fall is good for the glaciers, but no more than that. Yes, to get stoked about a winter that will bring quite a few uncertainties. Until then, you better enjoy the stoke brought to you by Salomon TV.
Stay safe and healthy