Dry this week, but possibly a lot of fresh snow at the end of November


By Henri on 17 November 2021 · 1

The first tracks in Piedmont
The first tracks in Piedmont

After the heavy retour d'Est it was time for the first powder tracks of the season in Piedmont. After the period of strong snowfall the region received a proper base for the rest of the season. The weather models had already noticed the snowfall in time and also the quantities were quite accurate. From now on, we'll just have to be patient until the next serious snowfall. At the end of November, there seems to be some possibility for some fresh snow and maybe even fairly large amounts.

Snow height change in Piedmont after the retour d'Est (kachelmannwetter.com)
Snow height change in Piedmont after the retour d'Est (kachelmannwetter.com)
High pressure dominates (wetter3.de, DWD)
High pressure dominates (wetter3.de, DWD)
(no) snowfall for the next six days, the snow in Piedmont has already fallen this morning
(no) snowfall for the next six days, the snow in Piedmont has already fallen this morning

Calm weather

At the moment, the Alps are between two high pressure areas, but this high pressure belt is strong enough to keep the precipitation fronts away from the Alps. The weather is calm with a low-stratus deck (inversion) in a large part of the Alps. The south-western Alps and the northern side of Austria also have to deal with clouds in the higher layers, elsewhere it is sunny higher up.

Cold front approaching the Northern Alps on Sunday(wetter3.de, DWD)
Cold front approaching the Northern Alps on Sunday(wetter3.de, DWD)

In the coming days, the Alps will be increasingly influenced by the high-pressure area that is still over the Atlantic Ocean. At higher altitudes, warmer air will flow towards the Alps. At the end of the weekend, this high-pressure belt over the Alps will be disrupted and a front from the north will come very close. It will provide some cooling on Monday, but most likely it will stay dry in the Northern Alps. A low pressure area west of the Alps (clearly visible on the 500-hPa geopotential height map below (more info soon in an extensive background article)) might provide quite some snow in the Southern Alps early next week.

500-hPa geopotential height with a low-pressure system west of the Alps for early next week (wxcharts.com)
500-hPa geopotential height with a low-pressure system west of the Alps for early next week (wxcharts.com)

Wintry end to November?

The forecasts on wePowder are powdered by our friends at Ortovox

There are enough signs for snowfall in the Alps before the end of November, but for now the differences between the model calculations remain fairly large. An Atlantic blockage and a shifting jet stream to the south seem to clear the way for wintry conditions in the Alps. The southern Alps seem to have the best chance for a new dump.

Comments


  • ieism
    Tourist
    ieism op 17 November 2021 · 14:56

    *message edited by ieism op 17 Nov 2021 15:02 (77% bewerkt)
    splitfest.nl

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