Nordstau chances increase

Nordstau chances increase
Our snow forecast for the next six days
Our snow forecast for the next six days

The end of a long dry spell is in sight, at least for Austria. Today, the Salzburgerland and Upper Austria will get already some snow, but from Thursday onwards, a northern flow will provide a driving force and locally a lot of snow. The other parts of the Alps will have to wait a bit longer.

In this weather report:

  • A little taste today
  • Sunny in the middle of the week
  • Nordstau (light)?
Northerly flow will give some snow today for Austria (wetter3.de, DWD)
Northerly flow will give some snow today for Austria (wetter3.de, DWD)

A little taste today

^The forecasts on wePowder are powdered by our friends at Ortovox

Last night Austria and Germany got along the northern edge of the Alps some snow, but not much. In the course of the afternoon, new snowfall will reach the east of Austria from the north, which, like this morning, is accompanied by stormy winds. In the southern Alps, too, some ski resorts are experiencing problems due to the strong Nordföhn, but here it remains dry. The high-pressure area over the British Isles is too far to the east, which means that the Western Alps will not experience any of this snowfall. Here, just like in the Southern Alps, it will remain sunny and dry.

The snow amounts for Austria aren’t really impressive yet, but it’s a nice refresher for many areas. I expect some 10 to 15 centimetres, with in the stau areas like the Dachstein massif possibly 20 centimetres or maybe even more.

High pressure causes sunny conditions (wetter3.de, DWD)
High pressure causes sunny conditions (wetter3.de, DWD)

Sunny in the middle of the week

The snowfall won’t last long, from tomorrow onwards it will clear up quickly due to increasing air pressure everywhere and it will temporarily become a bit milder on the northern side. Wednesday will be another sunny day, as we have seen so many times in recent weeks. In the course of the afternoon, the first clouds that herald a change in the weather will appear from the northwest. Once again, a high pressure blockade to the west of the European continent will allow a northerly flow to develop, which may last a little longer, as things look now.

Another northerly flow will give a Nordstau (wetter3.de, DWD)
Another northerly flow will give a Nordstau (wetter3.de, DWD)

Nordstau (light)?

On Thursday, the flow will turn from northwest to north soon, so the Northwest Alps will benefit less from this snowfall. The French Northern Alps will have to make do with about 5 centimetres, the stau areas in Switzerland like Engelberg can still get 20 centimetres on Thursday. If the high pressure area shifts a bit to the west, this may even increase with the snowfall on Friday and Saturday. In Austria, especially in the areas east of Tyrol, the snowfall continues through the weekend. During the night from Thursday to Friday, polar air masses will reach the Northern Alps, bringing snow down to the valleys. At the same time, the wind will also increase significantly. Higher up, stormy winds with strong gusts will increase the avalanche risk due to wind-blown snow.

The European model predicts half a meter of snow on a large scale and shows amounts up to one meter locally around the Dachstein massif. The GFS was going for a “Nordstau light”, but the new run is more positive and follows the European model and shows half a meter of snow (and up to one meter locally) from Vorarlberg to the east of Austria. For now, don’t focus too much on the exact amounts, but the potential for a nice Nordstau is there! Especially for regions like Vorarlberg and Tyrol, we have to be careful, because these amounts are on the weather charts here for the first time today. Saturday, the stau may continue in Austria, but what will happen after that is still very uncertain. At the moment, the models can’t decide between a return of a high-pressure area or an even longer lasting northern flow.

Henri
knows everything about new ski areas, lifts and projects.

Replies

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gcounetAuthor18 January 2022 · 16:27

Hello Team,
Bergfex forecast (I don’t know on which model it is based) indicates a Nordstau more oriented on Salzburg region compared to Wepowder current model (where Voralberg gets a fair amount).
Any more precise update on this coming new #PA ? ;-)
Thanks a lot !
Cheers

Tourist
opisskaproAuthor18 January 2022 · 16:56

The Bergfex forecast also seems to be a little later if I read the times correctly? Here the least snowy day for NE Austeia is Saturday, but there it’s Sunday, which is quite important for planning, as the snow before that should be pretty heavy and the day before it clears will be quite difficult to go anywherem

Beginner
HenriAuthor18 January 2022 · 18:53

@@gcounet yes, like I said in my weather forecast the eastern part of Austria (Salzburgerland etc) will get the most. Our model doesn’t seem to follow the other models, so at this moment I would definitely not focus too much only on our model. Tomorrow morning a new update! And yes, a new PA! :)

@@opisska Also Sunday seems to be a day with fresh snow yes. Also with this I’m not relying too much on our model right now, but also the other models still show some differences for Sunday (and also for the details on Saturday). One big wave of snow will follow from Friday afternoon to Saturday morning. Tomorrow I’ll go a bit more into detail with the most recent model runs.

Tourist
opisskaproAuthor18 January 2022 · 20:20

Great, looking forward to the news! I personally have enough free time to just go on Friday and try a few days with not completely certain outlook, but if I manage to convince some friends to come, they are gonna want more details :)

Beginner
markfarjadAuthor20 January 2022 · 17:22

@@gcounet yes, like I said in my weather forecast the eastern part of Austria (Salzburgerland etc) will get the most. Our model doesn’t seem to follow the other models, so at this moment I would definitely not focus too much only on our model. Tomorrow morning a new update! And yes, a new PA! :)

@@opisska Also Sunday seems to be a day with fresh snow yes. Also with this I’m not relying too much on our model right now, but also the other models still show some differences for Sunday (and also for the details on Saturday). One big wave of snow will follow from Friday afternoon to Saturday morning. Tomorrow I’ll go a bit more into detail with the most recent model runs.

Henri op 18 Jan 2022 18:53

Any idea on when the western Alps will start to get snow? It’s been a couple of weeks now and doesn’t look like there’s much forecasted for the next few weeks.

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