After the snow of the past few days, more and more ski resorts are opening this weekend. Val Thorens will open its skilifts this weekend with strongly improved conditions after the cancelled opening weekend last week. In Austria, for example, Obertauern has been open since today. Other non-glacier ski areas such as Axamer Lizum, Hochfügen and Gargellen will follow this weekend. In Switzerland, Sankt Moritz and parts of 4 Vallées open this weekend, among others. The snowpack is still a bit on the thin side, but the first powder turns are possible here.
Some snow later today
Today started calmly with broad clearings and generally little cloud cover. However, some precipitation approached from the west during the day. A weakened cold front from a low-pressure core north of Scotland is responsible for this snowfall. From the French Northern Alps to Austria, some snow will fall. From west to east, the snowline will be roughly at 1,500 metres to just below 1,000 metres. For most areas, the cold front will deliver only a few centimetres. Around 5 to 10 centimetres of snow could fall in the north-western stau regions of Switzerland.
Quiet weekend
Over the weekend, high pressure prevails and it remains calm with quite a bit of sunshine in the mountains. In Austria, it may snow for a bit longer on Saturday, especially in the areas roughly east of Innsbruck. On Sunday, the high-pressure core moves further east, bringing the Alps into a south-westerly flow. With this flow, it will become significantly milder, first in the Western Alps and then also on the north side due to föhn.
Some snow again after the weekend
This föhn episode will be cleared during Monday by the approach of a new front from the west. While it first looked like the front would move over the Alps, the European model today shows the front stalling just west of the Alps. The US model does calculate another 10 centimetres or so for the north-west Alps, because in here, unlike the ECMWF, the north-westerly flow is considerably stronger due to the stronger low pressure area over Britain. A separate low-pressure core develops over the Mediterranean just south of France, but follows a south-easterly course, most likely bringing little or even no precipitation for the southern Alps.
On Tuesday, it could possibly snow on the north side due to a southeastern upper level flow, with a northeastern flow underneath. The snowline here will be below 1,000 metres and some 5 to 10 centimetres seems possible between central Switzerland and Tyrol anyway. There is still some uncertainty here, though, as the US and European models still differ on this.
Dry on the long term?
For the long term, there are a number of developments to keep an eye on. The high-pressure area over Russia seems to be getting considerably stronger, while the jet stream seems to be clearly weakening. A combination that could possibly cause low-pressure areas to reach the Alps less quickly and thus allow for longer dry (but possibly also cold) spells. The past model runs did give some possibilities for snow on the southern side (especially in Piedmont), but these calculations were not (yet) convincing. Temperatures for the Alps seem to be slowly rising slightly, but remain around average for the time of year for now. We’ll keep an eye on it!
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but somewhere in the deep south… :)
and other 40 cm are expected in the next 48 hrs…
https://cdn.wepowder.com/site/forum/15/825bce5d7e7e050d40d14e98a0c1b9c4_img_6429.jpg?width=800
dry and cold or hot and rain…naaahhh.
Winter only with big snow on mountains February
Thoughts on the push on the map in the Nassfeld region this weekend? Might drive over there for Sunday if there’s a reasonable chance Saturday turns out the way the prediction looks
@@mdejong Most of the snow will fall Saturday evening - Sunday morning/afternoon in this region. Would be fine for touring. In case you want to use the lifts, please note that the season opening for Nassfeld will be on Wednesday. New weather forecast will be online in about 10 minutes.