In large parts of the Alps, the day started very sunny higher up. The fresh snow on the northern side due to the stalling occlusion front over the Alps corresponded well to the snow amounts expected according to the models. In Vorarlberg and Tyrol, 5 to 15 centimetres of snow fell, locally up to 20 centimetres. This morning, only northern Switzerland still has to deal with the remnants of this weakened front. Here it may continue to snow lightly throughout the day, while in Valais and other inner-Alpine areas, except for low-hanging clouds, it is already sunny.
Easterlies
The high pressure area in northern Europe turns the flow in the Alps to the east. This brings in relatively cool and moist air, but it does not get really cold. It creates a weather situation today which we will see more in the coming days: higher up sunshine with occasional passing high clouds and a low-stratus deck in many valleys.
In the south-eastern Alps, a south-easterly flow will temporarily provide some snow. Initially, snowfall will be limited to the regions of Slovenia and south-eastern Austria. During the night into Friday, precipitation may also extend a little further west into the southern Alps, but I do not expect much more than a few centimetres to a maximum of 10 centimetres of snow. Also in the Austrian Northern Alps, some snow showers may cross from the southeast on Friday. The snowline here will be around 1,000 metres. In the Northern Alps also a few hundred metres lower.
Snowfall during the weekend still uncertain
Developments for the weekend are still very uncertain. It’s certain we will see snow in the southern Alps, but the exact snow distribution remains unclear so far. Our forecast is currently optimistic and shows quite a bit of snow for the entire southern Alps. The ECMWF also had nice snowfall for almost the entire southern Alps in the weather charts yesterday (again), as we have seen occasionally in recent days. However, from run to run there were still big differences in precipitation amounts in particular. The American model yesterday showed a significantly different picture with less precipitation.
Today, we also see these differences in the model runs. The GFS foresees more snow for the western Southern Alps, with snow for the French Southern Alps as well. ECMWF, however, shows the most for the southern Dolomites and further east, regions where the American model, on the contrary, does not calculate much more than 10 centimetres. So it remains a highly uncertain setting.