The Northern Alps are entering a snowy phase. Especially in eastern Austria, the Nordstau could yield up to a metre of snow locally until the end of the week. Time for the details of Powder Alert #6!
Last night, the first snowfall arrived. With a high-pressure area to the west of Europe and a strong low-pressure area over northern Europe, the Alps are in a north-westerly flow. Still, this first snowfall did not deliver much yet, as with increasing air pressure from the west, it will soon become dry again everywhere. From central Switzerland (a few centimetres), the amounts increased towards eastern Austria. Here, some 10 to 20 centimetres fell and snowing continued a bit this morning. Also today and tomorrow, with a persistent northern flow, it could continue to snow a bit, especially in eastern Austria. Further west I expect more sunshine.
During the night from Wednesday to Thursday, the Nordstau swells again and the strongest snowfall follows. The more western areas such as the Arlberg and eastern Switzerland also participate better now, but do not get as much as eastern Austria. The snowfall will continue through Friday afternoon. Thursday during the day some 10 to 30 centimetres have already been added (centre of gravity in eastern Austria, Salzburgerland, Upper Austria, north-western Styria), with some more in the stau areas as well. On Friday morning, half a metre has already fallen on a large scale higher up. In the aforementioned regions, we will see amounts of around metres in the stau areas. The snowline will stay down to most valleys.
The new run from the American model already shows markedly less precipitation for the regions west of Innsbruck, again due to increasing air pressure from the west. Just goes to show that even details of a solid Nordstau that has been on the weather maps for days can still change. So for Switzerland this is not good news and also for the Arlberg there is still some uncertainty as to whether so much snow can actually start falling. I ultimately expect around 30 to 50 centimetres in the Arlberg, but at the same time I must also add that it is quite possible that some more will still fall. It is not a typical Schneeloch for nothing.
The jet stream is chasing over the eastern Alps during this snowfall and so there are stormy winds in the mountains as well. Wind slabs will be a problem and is currently (along with old snow) already a big problem! On Thursday in particular, the wind will pick up considerably and on Friday it will still be stormy higher up. So above all, don't look high during these days and be extremely careful after that too.
I had already given some tips in my previous weather report. It is the typical Nordstau areas in the east that will get a lot. Look for it first especially in the lower forested areas. Hochkönig, Zauchensee, Fieberbrunn, the ski areas of the Schneebären card, etc. Here it will continue to snow on Friday and Saturday, while further west it will stop and may clear up. From Sunday it is still very uncertain, while the ECWMF might go for a new Nordstau phase, the GFS is still cautious.
To conclude: so also pay attention to the dangers of wind slabs and don't dive into too high and steep terrain right away. Check the avalanche reports extensively and don't be too quickly tempted to dive into steeper terrain!