PA#7 and PA#8 Update

Today a brief update on the expected snowfall for PA#8 in Piedmont, the powder alert that was still a bit uncertain due to the scaled-back amounts in recent days. Before I get into that, let’s take a look at what the cold front left behind in the Northern Alps.

Nice layer of fresh snow on the north side

The cold front last night left a decent amount of snow in several Nordstau areas, as above in Spitzingsee, Bavaria. There was almost no snow here on Friday, but a good amount fell overnight. Some 30 to 40 centimetres fell from the Bregenzerwald to the Totes Gebirge. Further south, the amounts decreased as expected. South of the Inntal, for example, we saw no more than 20 centimetres. In Axamer Lizum, I found around 15 to 20 centimetres. Especially for the eastern half of the Northern Alps, then. Less fell in the troubled Switzerland and, moreover, the snowline was initially a bit higher than expected. Before the cold front, it rained here on the north side temporarily up to around 1,600 metres, but here too the snowline then dropped to around 1,000 metres at cold front passage.

Until tomorrow evening, some 10 to 20 centimetres could still fall! Again, I expect most in the northern areas between Vorarlberg and Salzburgerland. Moreover, considerably colder air is flowing in, making for a deep-winter day with temperatures well below -10 degrees at 2000 metres. In addition, a chilly northeast wind (especially later in the day) will also be present, making it feel even colder.

PA#8 in Piedmont

The big question in recent days was how the new model runs would calculate the snowfall for Piedmont. What is clear is that by far the most snow will fall in the southernmost areas. This is what the models have been hinting at for several days. The recent runs of the European model are quite consistent, with even some increasing amounts again.

Tomorrow (Sunday) is the day and the Genoa Low develops such that it starts snowing during the morning and afternoon. Initially also in the northern regions of Piedmont, but during the evening and night the snowfall will be increasingly limited to the southern half. Here it continues to snow through the night of Monday to Tuesday. It is cold enough for snow to reach the valleys.

In the areas west of Turin (e.g. Prali, Sestriere) it will be nowcasting. These areas are just on the edge where the models don’t quite agree on the amounts yet. Around 30 to 40 centimetres through Monday evening really seems possible here. Some high-resolution models hint at more. Further south, all models see the centre of gravity at the ski resorts around Cuneo in the Alpi Marittime: e.g. Limone Piemonte, Mondolè Ski. Here it could really start dumping well over half a metre by Monday evening, with some calculations reaching 80 centimetres or more.

Snowfall will also temporarily jump to the French Alps on Sunday. Anyway, the Maurienne Valley can expect some snow, of course the most for the areas close to the Italian border, like Val Cenis. Some 5 to 15 centimetres are also calculated in the French southern Alps. Of course, we then also have the Queyras, where the areas close to the border could catch much more. Based on the models, 20 to 40 centimetres seems possible, but it will be nowcasting here too. Here too, some high-resolution models show some more.

Read also:

• What is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming?
• What is an ensemble forecast?
• What are low- and high pressure areas?
• What is a northstau/nordstau?
• What is a southstau/südstau?
• What is föhn?
• What is a retour d’Est?
• What is the jet stream?