PA#13: towards the border of Italy, Slovenia and Austria?


Par meteomorris sur 31 janvier 2018 · 15

Tuesday was a mild and sunny day in the Alps with temperatures well above zero at 2000 meters altitude. Wednesday starts sunny, just like the last couple of days, but there will be higher clouds coming in from the northwest in the course of the day. It's an indication that a front is approaching and you can expect some snowfall. It will start in the northwest of the Alps (northern French Alps, the west, north and east of Switzerland and Vorarlberg), but it will expand to the border region of Italy, Slovenia and Austria later this week. In this forecast:

  • Incoming front
  • Lots of snow for the northern Alps between Wednesday evening and Saturday morning
  • Lots of snow for the border region Italy-Austria-Slovenia on Thursday and Friday
  • PowderAlert #13 from Friday

Incoming front

The map above is the expectation for Thursday. A warm front will arrive on Wednesday. The light will become a bit diffuse and high clouds reach the Alps from the northwest. The clouds are getting thicker during the day. The first precipitation will come down in the northwest of the Alps in the evening, with the snow line dropping to 1200 to 1500 meters in the night to Thursday. Cold air arrives in the Alps from the northwest on Thursday and it will continue to snow.

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Lots of snow for the northern Alps between Wednesday evening and Saturday morning

With a current that's turning to the northwest, the northwest of the Alps will be in the line of fire at first. The most fresh snow is expected in the French northern Alps, the west and north of Switzerland, the Kleinwalsertal and the Austrian Vorarlberg until the weekend. I expect it to keep on snowing until Friday and you can expect 15-30, locally 40-50 cm of fresh snow. The snowfall falls on a thick and pretty stable snow cover. The existing snow cover has managed to stabilize itself after the enormous precipitation peaks of recent weeks, which offers perspective for next weekend. Keep in mind that it was mild and the snow will freeze the next couple of days. Cold snow will fall on top of a hard layer. You'll need at least 30 cm to ride powder without feeling that hard layer all the time.

Lots of snow for the border region Italy-Austria-Slovenia on Thursday and Friday

You can see a small T on the map above map. This small depression causes a southwestern current in the eastern southern Alps. And that's something different with the Piedmont getting the most snow the last couple of dumps. This small depression turned into a big storm according to the calculations of the last 36 hours. It will bring a lot of snow to the eastern southern Alps on Thursday and Saturday.

Eastern southern Alps?

When we're talking about the eastern southern Alps, we mean the resorts south of the main alpine ridge east of the Brenner pass:

There's a big mountain range in this region: the Karnischer Alpen or the Karnische alpine ridge. This chain of mountains regularly block the incoming clouds from the south to southwest, allowing it to snow heavily, especially on the border between Italy, Austria and Slovenia. A region like Süd Tirol on the other hand will get less snow because it is blocked by the Dolomites on the south, by the main alpine ridge on the north and by the Karnische alpine ridge in the east. Just like in the rest of the Alps, the eastern southern Alps also have resorts that will get more and others will get less snow.

The regions that border the east of the southern Alps are:

The Italian region of Lombardia is typically a region that's right in the middle of the western and the eastern southern Alps. It all depends on the path of the storm if it will get a lot of snow or not. The reason I also mention the south of the Salzburgerland and the southernmost areas of Tyrol is because storms from the south contain more moisture and as a result the highest peaks of Tyrol (Obergurgl and Hohe Tauern) also benefit from snowfall from the south, especially when a snow sandwich (snow from north and south) is hammering the Hohe Tauern. But the center of the eastern southern Alps are the areas mentioned earlier with special attention to the border of Italy, Austria and Slovenia.

Lots of snow from Thursday

When the cold air from the northwest flows into the Po-valley on Thursday, a low pressure area is formed that (with a southwestern current), will push the clouds against the mountains of the eastern southern Alps. This initially results in a lot of snow in Lombardia, the west of Trentino and the southwest of the Engadin (and as mentioned before also on the north side of the main alpine ridge, because cold air is still flowing into Austria). It will snow heavily where those two fronts from the southwest and northwest meet. The center of gravity can be initially found in the Hohe Tauern and the highest peaks of the Austrian alpine ridge, but moves more and more towards the border region of Italy, Austria and Slovenia. It will snow heavily especially in the night to Friday and on Friday itself. You can expect 40-70, locally more than 100 cm of fresh snow.

The Alps will have to deal with some high pressure after Friday. The precipitation will calm down and there is some room for the sun. The high pressure area will stick around for a while, but there are a couple of storms trying to get in.

PowderAlert #13 from Friday

You can block your agenda on Friday. The riding will be pretty good in the northwest of the Alps on Friday. I will keep you up to date on Thursday and tell you where to go in the northwest of the Alps on Friday. It will be even better in the southeast, but the models remain dynamic, so tune in tomorrow and know where to go on Friday. The riding will be good in the border region Italy-Austria-Slovenia.

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Stay stoked. Morris.

Commentaires


  • rossymcg
    Beginner
    rossymcg op 31 janvier 2018 · 15:37
    it's unbelievable it's just not stopping. I'm wondering how far east as I'll be in the tatras in 3 weeks time. A good top up to the base layer will make me happy
  • camillaandersen144
    camillaandersen144 op 31 janvier 2018 · 15:50
    Hey @meteomorris! Where would you go, if you landed in Milan today, and could drive wherever for the next days? (Trying my best to stay stoked..😉
  • meteomorris
    Expert
    meteomorris op 31 janvier 2018 · 16:00
    @camillaandersen144 I think that Nassfeld is a safe bet. Lovely terrain and big enough to have some fun. Selle Nevea is a great resort but the top lifts tend to stay close for a few days during and after a huge storm. Options nearer to Milan would Passo Tonale and Sulden am Ortler.
    May the powder be with you.
  • matthewcrain
    matthewcrain op 31 janvier 2018 · 16:05
    Hey @meteomorris! Coming from the US to ski the Arlberg from Sunday for a week. Concerned about lack of snowfall. Hoping conditions are okay on piste and we have a few days with Piste2Powder to explore some off-piste.
  • camillaandersen144
    camillaandersen144 op 31 janvier 2018 · 16:23
    Thanks a lot @meteomorris for your help, I really really appreciate it!!
  • Lolita
    Beginner
    Lolita op 31 janvier 2018 · 17:32
    Hi Morris, looking at flights for tomorrow to go somewhere for a week, totally flexible, feeling indecisive, where shall I go? 😃
  • meteomorris
    Expert
    meteomorris op 31 janvier 2018 · 18:11
    @Lolita, fly to an airport where they rent cars with proper winter tires. Based on the current modelruns I would fly to Inssbruck or Salzburg and drive towards the resorts on the border between Italy/Slovenia/Austria

    Stay flexibele and read my updates once you are on your road trip. Have fun!
    May the powder be with you.
  • NiklasH
    NiklasH op 31 janvier 2018 · 18:14
    Hey @meteomorris! Coming from the US to ski the Arlberg from Sunday for a week. Concerned about lack of snowfall. Hoping conditions are okay on piste and we have a few days with Piste2Powder to explore some off-piste. matthewcrain op 31 Jan 2018 16:05 Lack of snowfall? It's the snowiest winter in years, especially in the northern Alps. We have nearly 4m of base in St. Anton already. There's more snow coming and cold temps this week so it should be great time to come here.
  • FreshPow
    Advanced
    FreshPow op 31 janvier 2018 · 18:17
    Sweet. Am in Ortisei. Will not get the biggest part of the dump but still going to be nice! Thanks for the weather update!
    Life starts at the end of your comfort zone
  • Lolita
    Beginner
    Lolita op 31 janvier 2018 · 18:24
    Thank you, great tip about the tires, we were thinking of Treviso or Venice, but Salzburg is probably a safer option. Although you never know, we got stuck halfway up to Verbier in a rental car with "proper winter tires" with snow chains that didn't fit from Geneva airport last week 😃
  • matthewcrain
    matthewcrain op 31 janvier 2018 · 18:29
    Hey @meteomorris! Coming from the US to ski the Arlberg from Sunday for a week. Concerned about lack of snowfall. Hoping conditions are okay on piste and we have a few days with Piste2Powder to explore some off-piste. matthewcrain op 31 Jan 2018 16:05 Lack of snowfall? It's the snowiest winter in years, especially in the northern Alps. We have nearly 4m of base in St. Anton already. There's more snow coming and cold temps this week so it should be great time to come here.NiklasH op 31 Jan 2018 18:14

    I meant more about recent lack of snowfall but it appears it’ll snow some tomorrow to freshen up the conditions and then it will stay cold so looking good for next week.
  • Petter
    Advanced
    Petter op 1 février 2018 · 07:47
    Any updates on Lombardia or Ötztal? Is it still possible that Obergurgl gets squeezed in ann snow sandwich?

    Great work on this website @meteomorris
    Snow should always be dry, cold, and free. Like champagne!
  • meteomorris
    Expert
    meteomorris op 1 février 2018 · 14:33
    @Petter, Sweet spot will be more to the east. Hohe Tauern (southern Salzburgerland) will get their share.
    May the powder be with you.
  • meteomorris
    Expert
    meteomorris op 1 février 2018 · 14:36
    Update will be live this afternoon.
    Already my hints for upcoming weekend

    * Northwestern Alps (western Wallis, Haute Savoie, western Berner Oberland)
    * Hohe Tauern (southern Salzburgerland, Ost Tirol, Northern Carinthia)
    * Alpe Adria (border regions of Italy, Austria and Slovenia)

    The regions above will get most of the snow. Other parts of the Alps might see 5-10, maybe 20 cm. Some parts none.
    May the powder be with you.
  • Petter
    Advanced
    Petter op 1 février 2018 · 15:03
    Tnx @meteomorris, maybe check in a hotel in Wattens and travel around Sud Tyrol then.

    Snow should always be dry, cold, and free. Like champagne!

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