Low pressure area Mischka caused some trouble in the Alps and is still going strong. The PowderQuest reports are coming in like crazy, one photo even deeper than the other.
Around 100 to 150 centimeters of freshies came down in the northern and western Alps the last couple of days. Mischka was a super storm and did what was expected. In about one week winter returned to the northern and western Alps. It still seems that late northern winters really are better. This snowfall brings a lot of pleasure, but Mischka also has a dark side. Since the start of the dump already 12 people died due to avalanches. Twelve fatalities in just three days time and there a tens of thousands of people on the mountain today as well.
It's still cold
Please ride safe. There is plenty of fresh snow, there's more to come and there are lines between the trees that are much less dangerous. There is a lot of fresh of snow and you can expect some more, really cold snow. At this time, it's still snowing in parts of the northern and western Alps. That, with varying intensity, will remain so until Monday, with most snowfall is expected on Sunday in the north of the western Alps and tomorrow in the northern Alps central. Both regions can expect around 30 centimeters again before the maps are changing.
We still have to deal with Mischka for a while. The low pressure area has been split into Mischka I and Mischka II. Mischka I is the most important part for us. It's moving slowly to the south to the Gulf of Genoa and will then move on towards the Adriatic Sea and beyond. A scenario which rings a bell. Snowfall for the Southern Alps, and in this case also (again), the Pyrenees and the Apennines. And perhaps in the long term even for the eastern Northern Alps.
PA#10: Retour d'est
From Tuesday, Mischka will cause a classic retour d'est and it will pick a spot above the Gulf of Genoa. That will cause intense snowfall in the stau areas of the western and southern Piedmont. As it seems, the center of gravity will be around Mont Viso. The snowfall starts on Tuesday night, which will continue to Thursday. I expect around 50 cm, but in most precipitation-rich areas, this can possibly be up to 100cm. It is too early to make very precise predictions for the temperature, but the snow line will be well below the 1000m.
In the night from Thursday to Friday Mischka then moves to the Adriatic Sea, and the current continues to be southeast. The precise consequences are still difficult to predict, but it is certain that it comes to intensive precipitation in, or south of the eastern Southern Alps. Perhaps the easterly current is strong enough to let the snowfall in the rest of the Southern Alps last until the end of next week. More on that later.
Where to go?
You'll find great powder in the complete northern and western Alps from Sunday to Wednesday.
It's on in the Piedmont from Thursday. You can still see on the webcams that the base is pretty nice, but they could use some more. Let the snow fall and make sure you're there from Thursday. Tree runs in the larches. The exact tips will follow in the next couple of days. But there is already an alert for:
In short, you can ride powder in the northern and western Alps until Wednesday. From Thursday it's on in the Piedmont, for the days after that, the south will be the place to be. More details will follow later this week.
Let's end this forecast with a warning, because the snow cover is still really unstable at the moment. Think twice and ride safe. The wise words from Neil McNab say it all.
Morris & Niels