Although the conditions in the Alps are pretty good at the moment above 2000 - 2200 meters it's always a good idea when there's more snowfall in the forecast, especially for some regions in the Alps. We just have to keep on dancing, because my last forecast wasn't that positive. But there was a small storm visible on the American model last night (but it was gone this morning) and there's a nice storm forecasted by the European model. The high pressure area that's dominating the Alps at moment won't move its ass just like that, so keep on dancing. In this forecast:
If you're looking at the weather maps for days (just like me) and you see the high pressure area above the Alps, there's nothing more beautiful to see a huge storm popping up that will dominate the weather in western Europe. And exactly such a storm was visible on the European ECMWF model this morning.
Unfortunately, this storm can not be found on maps of the American GFS, but they showed a storm on their maps from their run last night. But as I said, that storm is gone. To be honest, the fact that it hasn't been snowing for a while isn't that strange. You can already find great snow in the high alpine in lots of regions in the Alps. It would be great if the for the mid-mountain arrives in the middle of December. If it falls before that time, chances are that it will simply melt. The saying Weihnachtswetter-Tauwetter is a German saying for a reason. Christmas is early in the season and winter has to get started. And lots of locals prefer a later start of the winter instead of an early start.
Anyway, the Big Change should happen somewhere between the 14-17th of December. I will keep posting updates the next couple of days.
Despite the words above, it still appears to be a trend. There's an increase of high pressure areas during fall in recent years that send storm to northern Europe and bring higher temperatures. For those who can read Italian, you can find an interesting analysis here. The author asks the question: "are we dealing with a trend that is part of a larger cycle, or are these signs of a real climate change?" It is a question that we will be asking ourselves much more in the coming decades. With the availability of more data, we can measure more and we will definitely jump to more and less substantiated conclusions.
Climate change or not, it's simply ON like Donkey Kong in many parts of the world. The depressions are forced to pass the Alps, but the northern current brings them to the Caucasus for example. You can already ride great snow in Gudauri in Georgia and there's more snow falling down next week. They'll open this lifts during the weekend of 12-13th December.
The same applies to western North America. It's especially on in Pacific Northwest (the state of Washington, Oregon and the west of BC). Mount Baker already has a base of up to 109 inches. That is almost three meters of snow at less than 1500 meters altitude and that there expecting another 50 cm next week.
No snowfall and relatively mild temperatures in the Alps doesn't mean that the conditions are bad everywhere in the world. The Alps are just as unlucky and the rest of the northern hemisphere are getting tons of snow right now.
Stay stoked. Morris