We can speak of a decent early season where cold periods with snow alternate with milder and dry high-pressure weather. Many regions are still waiting for a good base, and that wait might soon be rewarded. As Henri mentioned yesterday, we are looking with interest at the developments starting Friday, which will initiate a new winter onset in the Alps. Today, we are checking if the weather models are now more aligned regarding snow expectations.
Cold with a local snow shower today
Today, there are still some snow showers, especially in Switzerland and Austria. In Switzerland, Tirol, and Vorarlberg, the landscape above 800 meters is dusted with a fresh layer. In the rest of the Alpine region, it is dry and cold with a frost line between 800 and 1200 meters. In the Western Alps, the sun breaks through regularly. Tonight, it will still be cold with clear spells and moderate to severe frost.
Thursday to Saturday milder
Before winter can arrive, we have to bite the bullet. Low-pressure areas near Scotland and Iceland are causing an influx of mild air from the southwest on their eastern flank. The zero-degree line rises to 1800 meters in the Western Alps on Thursday, while in Austria, it is still around 1300 meters. On Friday, the Alps will be entirely in this warm sector with temperatures up to 10 degrees in the valleys south of the main ridge and a zero-degree line from 1600 meters in Kärnten to 2200 meters in the French Alps. Thursday will remain dry, but it will gradually become cloudy from the west. On Friday morning, we will see the first precipitation concentrating on the Western Alps (France, Switzerland) and later in a weakened form also affecting the Austrian areas north of the main ridge. The weather models predict 5 to 15 mm of precipitation (or 5 to 15 cm of snow), with a high snow line of 1700 to 2100 meters.
Winter arrives Sunday, possibly a meter of snow
On Saturday, a powerful high-pressure area (core pressure >1045 hPa) will form over the ocean, extending all the way to Iceland. This creates a northern slide over the North Sea, bringing depressions and cold air onto the continent. Henri already mentioned the importance of the course of these depressions, which the weather models calculated quite differently. The major models are now more aligned. Both the American GFS and the European ECMWF show a low-pressure area over Germany on Sunday and a weaker secondary low over Northern Italy. The high precipitation amounts previously shown by ECMWF are now also seen in GFS, the model that forms the basis for our WePowder maps.
In the night to Sunday, the zero-degree line will drop from the northwest to about 800 meters, regionally even a few hundred meters lower. The flow will shift from west to north, initially favoring the Western Alps but later also benefiting the Northern Alps. In both areas, it will snow heavily for most of the day, with totals of 20 to 60 centimeters above 500-800 meters. The most snow (40 to 60 cm) will fall in France in the northern and western Alps, a large part of the Swiss Alps, the Austrian Vorarlberg, and the western Tirol. South of the main ridge, little to no snow will fall, and the Southern French Alps also seem to remain mostly dry. The Black Forest and the Jura can also expect a significant amount of snow.
Snow continues on Monday and Tuesday, possibly also in the Southern Alps
From Monday, the weather models diverge again regarding the position of small disturbances. The north stau seems to remain in place on Monday, possibly allowing some regions to reach 100 cm of fresh snow. We also see precipitation signals in Slovenia, Kärnten, and the Dolomites on Monday and Tuesday, which could mean the first serious snow of the season there. As often with südstau, low-pressure areas south of the Alps need to be in exactly the right position for a good dump. Whether this will be the case is still uncertain.
Good snow chances for the Pyrenees
For the first time this season, the flow also seems favorable for the Pyrenees. From Sunday, there will be several days of north stau, resulting in about half a meter of snow in many areas. Other mountain ranges in Central and Northern Spain should also expect snow. Just like in the Alps, it will remain cold in Spain throughout the week.
Cold will linger
Unlike previous wintery spells this fall, this time the cold will last longer. The high-pressure area over the ocean will tilt towards Scandinavia, enclosing the bubble of cold air and disturbances over the continent. As a result, it will remain cold in the Alps throughout the next week, with moderate to severe frost at night during clearings and persistent frost above 800 to 1500 meters during the day. The flow will gradually weaken during the week, and since there are still snow disturbances roaming around, the chance of an additional dump remains, also on the southern side. We will keep you updated on the exciting developments this week, likely with the first Powder Alert of the season soon!
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