At least half a meter of snow regionally in the coming week

The French Alps received a nice refresh at higher altitudes in recent days, but the snow cover is still clearly below normal for the end of January in almost the entire Alps. This is expected to improve in the coming week, although we should also expect rain below 1500 to 2000 meters.

Current situation is suboptimal

A brief overview of the season so far: alternating periods of rain and snow were followed by long high-pressure situations with lots of sun. Temperatures were on the high side, but prolonged very mild weather (like in recent winters) has not occurred so far. The result is highly variable snow depths and conditions in the Alps. Only above 2200 meters in France and Switzerland can the base almost match the long-term average (see map above for Switzerland). Lower down, snow depth is below average throughout the entire Alpine massif, and in Austria and Italy, it is well below average in most areas. Fortunately, new snow is on the way, also for the Southern Alps, although the amount in the eastern half of the Alps may turn out to be a bit disappointing.

Dry and mild on Friday and Saturday

On the weather map of Europe, the hurricane depression near Ireland stands out. Wind gusts of more than 180 km/h were recorded there this morning. South of the cold front (blue line), mild air is flowing over the Alps with a southwesterly flow. The Southern Alps will benefit today and tomorrow from a Mediterranean high-pressure area that provides fairly calm conditions with a frost line around 1600 meters. Around and north of the main ridge, it is a different story: a moderate to strong south foehn is blowing, raising the frost line to 2200 to 2600 meters. Clouds and clear spells alternate, and maximum temperatures of 15 degrees are expected on Saturday in the northern valleys.

Multiple disturbances

Depressions will follow a more southerly course from Sunday, bringing daily precipitation in the coming week.

• Sunday we’ll see the most snow for the Western and Southern Alps, with little precipitation in Austria and the Dolomites. The snow line starts high but drops to 1300-1600 meters during the day.
• Monday the air will warm up again, causing precipitation west and north of the main ridge to turn into rain below 1700-2200 meters. In the Southern Alps, the snow line will be between 1400 and 1700 meters. The Western and Southern Alps can expect 20 to 50 centimeters, with the heaviest snowfall in the Northern French Alps around the Mont-Blanc massif.
• Tuesday looks to be a better day, with the snow line dropping significantly and widespread snowfall of 10 to 30 centimeters above 1000 to 1300 meters. The far east of Austria and the Dolomites will likely receive the least precipitation.

Uncertainty from Wednesday

Wednesday and Thursday, the weather models begin to diverge. According to the latest main run of the American GFS model, depressions will linger over France and the Alps while a high-pressure ridge extends to Scandinavia. This is a good recipe for fairly cold weather with a further dropping snow line! The European ECMWF model also shows the high-pressure ridge but allows significantly less cold air and disturbances to reach the Alps. This would mean stabilization with normal temperatures (frost line around 1500 meters).