We shouldn’t expect much from the weather in the Alps for the time being. It will be dry and mild for at least 10 days. So today we’re taking a look at Scandinavia as well.
Long stretch of dry and mild weather
The total accumulation maps speak for themselves. The gap in the accumulative precipitation map you see in the first image is right above the Alps. Both GFS and ECMWF keep the Alps completely dry for the next 10 days. The ECMWF’s AI model (AIFS), which already performs well on the medium to long range, also signals a very low-precipitation period. The high-pressure block over Europe keeps Atlantic lows far at bay, and the earliest possible change only shows up towards the end of next week.
The only glimmer of hope visible in the ensembles is that the sharp edge of the warmth will gradually fade and temperatures will start to cool down. Still, values remain well above average for the time of year, and with a strong high-pressure system cemented over the European continent, there’s no sign of a dump on the medium or long term.
Where can we find snowfall?
Since the Alps stay dry and mild, let’s look at regions that do get snow. Moist southwesterlies are pushing into Scandinavia, bringing snowfall. Even though the south is also on the mild side and not everywhere is truly wintry, the snowpack in inland areas like Gausta, Hafjell, and Hemsedal is steadily growing. Over the past few days, 20 to locally 40 cm has fallen there.
Later today, a strong Atlantic low approaches with an associated warm front. Western Norway in particular is set for heavy precipitation, but with warm air streaming in, the snowline rises sharply. Higher elevations could pick up around a meter of snow, but lower down a significant amount will wash away due to heavy rain and wind. As the flow shifts more westerly, inland areas further east will escape most of it.
In northern Scandinavia, bitterly cold air will drop in over the coming days. Snow depths at lower elevations are currently much higher than normal for this time of year. It will stay mostly dry on the Norwegian side. At the boundary between this cold northern air and the milder southern flow, especially in Sweden (roughly from Åre northwards), several tens of centimeters of snow may fall.
