Powder Alert#15 is ON. Large parts of the Alps got significant amounts of fresh snow and during the course of Tuesday the sun came out in more and more places. Today starts sunny, but at the end of the day a new front follows from the west. The start of a new storm cycle and also the start of Powder Alert#16. In this article:
- Retrospect: powder alert#15 was and is still ON
- Wednesday: a sunny day
- A new storm cycle
- Thursday: the snow map vs the weather map (read carefully!)
- Friday and beyond
- Where to go?
- Long-term
Retrospect: powder alert#15 was and is still ON
Powder Alert#15 brought the predicted snow and in many places the amounts I had predicted came down. It always feels good when a plan comes together. On the other hand: It wasn’t a very complex alert and whoever read my forecast well knew where to go. Koen Bakkers shared the video below with me and through my Insta I received more images from powderchasers.
But with the amounts of snow and the strong wind from time to time made locally the avalanche danger went up to HIGH. 4 on a scale of 5. In the meantime, this has dropped to 3, which is still a level in which a mistake can have consequences. But with the right knowledge and by checking your local avalanche message daily you can definitely find some safe lines.
North of the Mont Blanc region, bizarre quantities of snow fell and the areas on the border with France and Switzerland are in very good shape at the moment. And for those who want to go snowkiting: the col du lauteret is loaded with snow.
Wednesday: a sunny day, new storm cycle moving in
Today is a sunny day in the Alps, but towards the end of the afternoon higher clouds move in from the southwest which marks the start of a new storm cycle. A set of storm depressions is on track to the Alps and they will produce significant snow the upcoming days.
Thursday: the snow map vs the weather map (read carefully!)
I often notice that a lot of people around me tend to look only at the snow map and then drive to those places where the most snow falls. And for those who don’t know the Alps well, there is the TOP 50 list which gives you an idea where to expect the biggest accumulations.
But it is not always the case that those places with the biggest accumulations on the snow forecast maps are the best place to go that dat. Thursday is such a day. Above you see the snow forecast map and the TOP 15 for Thursday. The map and the TOP 50 list shows the snowfall from Thursday from 0.00 to 23.59. But to be honest: I would definitely remove three-quarters from that list as an option for Thursday. Why? Well that’s the story behind the centimeters.
Above the weather map for Thursday. An active storm depression is on its way to the Alps. First of all, a warm front moves into the Alps on Thursday (the red line). With a southwestern current, moist air is pushed into the Alps. Because it is a warm front, the temperature is relatively high, certainly in the areas where the clouds miss the Stau effect.
On the other hand we normally see that the snow line in the areas where the southwestern Stau is at its maximum the temperatures will drop due to orographic cooling. As a result the temperatures will drop and significant snow is to be expected. In this case I do mean the following areas:
- south of the French Ecrins mountain range
- south of Mont Blanc mountain range and
- southwest of the Alpennordhang in Wallis.
Not only do these areas see more snow it also will be waycolder here. Which you can see on the map below.
So Thursday it will be mild with some local snow, a lot of wind and a high snow line in the French Northern Alps and the rest of the Northern Alps. At the same time conditions will be ideal in the regions mentioned above. certainly in the forests.
Only after the southwestern wind drops and the cold front (the blue line on Thursday’s weather map) moves into the Alps conditions will be good in the French Northern Alps. But since this cold front will move in by the end of the day when the lifts are already closed this will be to late to enjoy an excellent powder day. That is why three-quarters of the areas in the TOP 15 list above for Thursday are not an option for me.
Friday and beyond
In the night to Friday, the cold front enters the west of the Alps and conditions will rapidly improve in the French Northern Alps and western Switzerland. At the same time, the moves front moves further to the east and continues to snow well in the north of Italy.
![Snow forecast until Friday] (https://cdn.wepowder.com/site/weblog/2/27997.jpg?w=1024)
On Saturday the upper airflow has turned North and the southwestern Föhn than has become a North Föhn. This assures snow fall in the Northern Alps on Saturday and a strong Northern wind in the southern Alps. As a result snow drifts may cause storm slabs in the Southern Alps. Sunday the sun should come through again in the complete Alps
Where to go?
Now that you know the story behind the centimeters, I have written the ideal powderchase for you:
Thursday:
- The northern French Hautes Alpes
- The northwest of the Aosta
Friday:
Still good conditions:
- The northern French Hautes Alpes
- The northwest of the Aosta
But watch out for the wind. Many storm slabs will be formed.
Now good conditions as well in:
- all areas in the French Northern Alps
- Western and Northern Switzerland
Saturday and Sunday:
Still good conditions:
-
The northern French Hautes Alpes
-
The northwest of the Aosta
But watch out for the wind. Many storm slabs will be formed. -
all areas in the French Northern Alps
-
Western and Northern Switzerland
Now good conditions as well in:
- The Swiss Alpine Nordhang
- Vorarlberg
Or plotted on a map:
- Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday (watch out for the north wind)
- Friday, Saturday and Sunday
- Saturday and Sunday
Long-term
If we look further into future then according to the most important weather models we will start next week relatively cold with some snow for the northwest and then milder with snow at a higher altitude for the Northwest.
In short, good prospects for the next 10 days. If you have urgent questions, ask them here or via my insta or facebook pages. I will do my best to answer asap.
Your Powfinder, Morris
Réactions
Hey I am hoping for a bit of clarification for your suggestion for Thursday. You said that Aosta seems like the place to go as it is most likely to have colder temps. However when you click over to the temp forecast for Entrevês/Cour and La Thulie it shows the freezing level going above 2k. The forests in all these areas are below 2.3k and the alpine likely won’t have the vis or stability. Is there something I’m missing?
Best
Sean
@@seangirling Do you mean the temperature forecast for La Thuile and Courmayeur on WePowder? Don’t take these to serious. These are from an algorithm that isn’t capable to calculate the effect of the orographic cooling which will take place tomorrow. Zero level degree will be between 900 and 1800 meters tomorrow and snow levels will drop to 600-800 meters. Especially in Courmayeur heavy snowfall is expected.
Please be aware that this only will take place in the western Aosta. In Chamonix it will be milder with föhn and/or rain to high levels during the day.
Hey Morris. Thanks again for this detailed forecast.
One thing that I am wondering: What about the area of the julian alps?
Cheers
Andy
Was thinking about the same.
Hey Morris. Thanks again for this detailed forecast.
One thing that I am wondering: What about the area of the julian alps?Cheers
Andyandreas.matt op 4 Mar 2020 21:18
Hey Morris. Thanks again for this detailed forecast.
One thing that I am wondering: What about the area of the julian alps?Cheers
Andyandreas.matt op 4 Mar 2020 21:18
@@andreas.matt
Julian Alps will be pretty good on Friday. Especially Sella Nevea.
The snow cover is really good there at te moment.
Nassfeld also looks great for Friday and Saturday. Do I miss something?
but Dolomites as well… https://cdn.wepowder.com/site/forum/14/4e0e01c5b6dfe8d9f26dfdef6a3231ba_schermata_202020_03_04_20alle_2021_21_49.jpg?width=800
Heavy snow at the moment at the Aosta. Here we go:
https://www.instagram.com/p/B9WCmRSFJSf/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
The algorithm of the we powder weather model didn’t do the job last night. The data you will find on the forecast pages therefor is from Wednesday.
If you have urgent questions, ask them via my Insta (http://bit.ly/2Zo3sZH) or Facebook (http://bit.ly/2S0Q8ak) pages. I am rather busy today but will do my best to answer asap.
Thank you for the very useful maps! The numbered circles are wonderful and really help me to figure out the zones you’re discussing. Also, as always, thanks for the forecast :)
Wet snow down to 2400m in Les Deux Alpes at the moment, rain below 2200… after skiing powder 40+ cm on Tuesday and Wednesday down to 1600m. Can we expect it to improve?
Tomorrow powder day in VDA: if you will see a man on a Korua Dart, you can say hello to me
https://cdn.wepowder.com/site/forum/14/57bd35eee85363033a3a1dd80a8dff41_vlcsnap_2020_02_29_14h58m43s123.png?width=800\
https://cdn.wepowder.com/site/forum/14/f87be298399f6c37b7a1e2aceea93ea8_img_20200227_143634.jpg?width=800
photos of Thursday and Friday of last week
Had a great time in the „salzburgerland“ the Last 3 Days.
@@seangirling Do you mean the temperature forecast for La Thuile and Courmayeur on WePowder? Don’t take these to serious. These are from an algorithm that isn’t capable to calculate the effect of the orographic cooling which will take place tomorrow. Zero level degree will be between 900 and 1800 meters tomorrow and snow levels will drop to 600-800 meters. Especially in Courmayeur heavy snowfall is expected.
Please be aware that this only will take place in the western Aosta. In Chamonix it will be milder with föhn and/or rain to high levels during the day.
meteomorris op 4 Mar 2020 21:11
You totally nailed it!!! Big powder day in Courmayeur. It snowed at least 60 cm during the ski day. Widespread avalanches on all aspects below 2300. Everyone be safe tomorrow!
Varied conditions in three valleys from 10-15cm on hard base to knee deep dry pow, depending on where you are. Plenty of good stuff about and a few lifts weren’t open today.
Today in Crevacol 80cm of fresh powder.
Hardest day of my snowboard powder life: no tree runs but good sunny day anyway.
Enjoy
https://cdn.wepowder.com/site/forum/14/57983ec01de419879c68337f67d66888_img_20200306_114415.jpg https://cdn.wepowder.com/site/forum/14/1a10c4ae828aef7e2ba8b7541d6e2441_img_20200306_114419.jpg https://cdn.wepowder.com/site/forum/14/2d1884807c3bff1b092a7999a5aaa501_img_20200306_114435.jpg https://cdn.wepowder.com/site/forum/14/a430ee4b8134621cfee76f3b0e8e7119_img_20200306_114444.jpg https://cdn.wepowder.com/site/forum/14/3e575984e26fa3ab1139621fb50d0097_img_20200306_114401.jpg https://cdn.wepowder.com/site/forum/14/909ec7d7413436ff5c5634b14dc50eca_img_20200306_114410.jpg https://cdn.wepowder.com/site/forum/14/a7ba19d11686740805d76f6d65312b73_img_20200306_114412.jpg?width=800