The days are quickly getting shorter and almost all glacier ski areas are open. The snow situation is better than last autumn, but these areas are still relying on the snow that fell in September and early October. Outside the glaciers, below 3200 meters, there is hardly any snow left. For freeriding, we still have to wait for colder air combined with precipitation. In this weather report, we look at where the precipitation will fall and where it will be cold enough for snow. Remarkably, Spain has better prospects than the Alpine region in the coming days. We also take a brief look ahead to November.
Locally over 100 mm of precipitation, but the snow line remains high
Between a high-pressure area over Eastern Europe and a low-pressure area moving from Ireland to Spain, there is a moist southern flow today and over the weekend, causing unsettled weather in Northern Italy and France. In the warm air, a disturbance with thunderstorms has formed over the Mediterranean Sea. These storms are moving north and colliding with the Alps. Since this situation will continue until Sunday, a lot of precipitation will fall, especially in the Southern French Alps and the Italian provinces of Piedmont, Aosta, and Lombardy. The heaviest precipitation will be in the western Italian Alps near the French border (Alpes-Maritimes, Via Lattea) and in the Valais Alps near the Swiss border, with peaks of over 100 mm between now and Sunday evening.
Potentially a significant amount of powder, but the southern flow brings warm air, so below 2600 meters, it will remain liquid precipitation. Today, the snow line is between 2700 and 3000 meters, and this will hardly change over the weekend. On the high peaks above 3000 meters, the snow will stay and the snow cover can grow by at least half a meter in the coming days. But this is very regional.
Dry and calm weather for most of the Alps
In the rest of the Alps, a very different weather pattern prevails in the coming days. The low-pressure area over Spain has little influence here, and the sun shines regularly, especially in Austria and north of the main ridge in Switzerland. In the valleys the days bring Indian summer weather with temperatures between 18 and 23 degrees, and in the mountains it is ideal weather for cycling, hiking, and skiing in the glacier areas on prepared slopes. The wind is southerly and especially on Sunday quite strong with a moderate south foehn in many valleys.
Lower snow line in Spain
In the low-pressure area over Spain this weekend, the upper air is much cooler with a freezing level between 1600 and 2000 meters. This could lead to the first serious snowfall of the season in the Pyrenees, Sierra Nevada, and the mountain ranges in the Spanish interior. Above 2000 meters, up to half a meter could accumulate in the Pyrenees, 10-40 cm elsewhere in Spain.
Return of strong high-pressure areas
After the weekend, the Spanish depression will move to Morocco, and the Western Alps and Pyrenees will come under the influence of high pressure extending from the Azores all the way to Turkey. This will result in calm autumn weather with chances of fog and night frost in the valleys. In the mountains, there will be a lot of sunshine and it will remain mild with a freezing level between 2800 and 3400 meters. This calm and dry weather will continue throughout the week.
Chances of colder weather early November
The ensembles show a slightly decreasing trend from early November, with some calculations indicating a genuine winter onset. The extremely mild options are gradually disappearing. Whether there will be a real trend break remains to be seen, we will come back to this soon.