From Sunday, we can expect stable high-pressure weather in much of Europe. Before that, we still have a few unsettled days ahead with rain and snow. Both the Southern and Northern Alps can still expect precipitation.
Grimentz this morning with fresh snow and breaking cloud (images: Henri Swinkels)
Snow for the Southern Alps today
The weather map (above) shows an autumnal setting today with a storm depression over southern Scandinavia. This is the depression that caused a storm in the Benelux and a lot of snow in the hills of the British Isles. In the mild air that the depression sucked in at the front, it rained again yesterday in France and Germany. Below 1500-1800 meters, the snow cover there took a significant hit. During the night, the snow line dropped slightly again, and eventually, 20-30 cm of snow fell at higher altitudes in many French and Swiss areas. Henri is currently in Grimentz and shared the above photos of the 20 centimeters of fresh powder he was treated to this morning. A low-pressure area over northern Italy is causing rain and snow in Austria and northeastern Italy today. The snow line is around 1200 meters in Tirol and Vorarlberg and around 1500 meters in Carinthia and northern Italy. I expect about 10 cm in large parts of Austria, up to 30 cm locally in the higher parts of the Dolomites and in Carinthia (e.g., Nassfeld). In the rest of the Alps, it remains predominantly dry, and it clears up significantly from the west.
Very Mild on Wednesday
A new depression will enter France tomorrow. The precursors will already bring some snow to the northern French and Swiss Alps tonight. Due to the influx of milder air, the snow line will rise to about 1800 meters. During the day, it will be predominantly dry in the Alps, with especially in the western Alps moist thawing conditions up to about 2600 meters. The action is further north; on the border of the mild and cold air, an active front will develop over France with snow on the northern side, mainly affecting Belgium and Germany.
Influx of polar air on Thursday
During the night and Thursday morning, a small secondary depression will move rapidly over northern Italy with some snow (10-20 cm) for the western and southern Alps, but only above 1600 to 2000 meters. The previously mentioned snow front will be pushed south on Thursday and will reach the Alps in the evening as a cold front. With the help of a bit of nordstau, the Swiss and Austrian Alps can expect 10-20 centimeters of snow around and north of the main ridge.
Have a look at the play between mild and cold air on the T850hPa maps, showing the temperature at circa 1500 meters
Friday and Saturday will bring the last precipitation
On Friday, the Alps will still be dealing with stau from the northwest. The weather models predict active precipitation, especially through the Swiss and northern French Alps, aided by milder air that slides over the cold air from the west and is forced upwards. Regionally, up to 40 centimeters may fall. The snow line will rise again to about 1500 meters. In Austria, less precipitation will fall, but it will fall as snow down to the valleys. Another 10 centimeters can accumulate there before the high-pressure lid comes on.
Dry and stable from Sunday
It takes a bit longer than the weather models previously predicted, but from Sunday, the Alps will again be under a strong high-pressure area for several days. Clear spells will dominate, and it will freeze severely at night. Sunday will still be cold with frost above 1200 meters, but after the weekend, the upper air will warm up significantly, especially in the western Alps.
Réactions
so it s looking bad for new snow in the week from 13.01. on ?
so starting a trip around 18/19/20.01. will be quite dry/snowless trip ?
Huge thank you for this!! If you could ski anywhere in the Alps this Saturday/Sunday, where would you go? Am thinking Vorarlberg, just because slightly colder temps (despite lower totals). Will trade snow quality for depth. Where would you guys go though??
so it s looking bad for new snow in the week from 13.01. on ?
so starting a trip around 18/19/20.01. will be quite dry/snowless trip ?powderhoundmoritz - 07 Jan 2025 12:42
Yes that’s what it looks like but anything further then day 10 is slightly speculative.