The last snow showers over Austria will dissipate in the morning, after which the sun will come out in many places. The fresh- and drifted snow still causes avalanche level 3 or 4 above 1500 meters on a large scale. In this update, we discuss the latest snow impulse in the Pyrenees and southern Alps, and the continuation with powerful high-pressure areas.
Moist dump with strong winds
The roller coaster of precipitation, wind and temperature caused a few exciting days in the Alps. Regionally, half a meter of snow fell from 1500 meters, but in other areas dealt with prolonged rain up to around 2000 meters. Eventually, the snowline dropped significantly yesterday, causing at least a cosmetic layer from 1000-1400 meters. New snow, drifted snow, and old weak layers create a dangerous setting above 1500 to 1800 meters. Dozens of avalanches were reported yesterday, and the situation remains tense today. In the coming days, the danger will gradually decrease due to the dry and calmer weather. Check https://lawinen.report/bulletin/latest daily for the current situation.
Last snowfall in the south
In most of the Alps, the precipitation is over for now, and clearings and cloudy spells alternate. A weakening depression moving from the Bay of Biscay to Italy will likely have an impact on the French and southern Italian Alps. The weather models do not entirely agree, but be prepared for some snowfall above 1200-1400 meters on Thursday and Friday. In many places, this is no more than 10 centimeters, but regionally, especially in the border region, 20 or 30 centimeters cannot be ruled out. For indication, above is what our model expects on Thursday. Elsewhere it is dry, but until Thursday also pretty windy at altitude with gustsy breezes from the west or south. In the Northern Alps, a moderate föhn wind blows. It is also the mildest there with 2 to 4 degrees at 1500 meters. Inneralpine and on the south side, the temperature stalls around freezing point at that altitude.
Snow for the Pyrenees
The aforementioned depression also causes precipitation in the Pyrenees on Thursday and Friday. Most precipitation is likely for the central and western part, where 20 to 30 centimeters is possible from 1200-1400 meters.
Easterly flow with sun and clouds over the weekend
Between the depression, which moves to southern Italy over the weekend, and a high-pressure area over the continent, an easterly flow develops. Remnants of the depression in the south and fields of low and mid-altitude clouds in the north occasionally reach the Alps. As a result, the weekend will not be super sunny, but there will certainly be regions (such as inneralpine above 1500 meters) where the sun will be visible for a long time. An advantage of the eastern flow is that mild air is beeing cut off. The nights bring frost almost everywhere, and during the day it is around freezing point at 1500 meters, possibly a few degrees colder in Austria.
Little action next week, temperature uncertain
High-pressure areas remain dominant next week, so there will be little or no precipitation. The question is how cold (or mild) it will get. From the GFS ensemble for Innsbruck above, we can conclude that this model predicts fairly low temperatures, about 5 degrees below average. The European ECMWF model has more mild solutions with positive temperatures at 1500 meters. It will all depend on the shape of the high-pressure areas and whether they allow cold air inflow from the northeast. The further east you are in the Alps, the greater the chance of a cold week.