We can finally enjoy winter scenes from the Alps again. Unfortunately, this cosmetic layer will disappear below 2000 meters in the coming days due to milder air, while it will remain relatively cold in Austria for a bit longer. Is the current cold snap a precursor to a real winter onset later this month? In this weather report, we will delve deeper into this, but first, let’s look at what the coming days will bring.
In the combined cloud and radar image above from this morning at 11:00, the disturbance over France is clearly visible. In the French Alps, it was still snowing heavily in some places, and some snow also fell in the Massif Central above 1500 meters. The disturbance followed a slightly more westerly course than previously expected, limiting snowfall to Vorarlberg, Switzerland, France, and NE Italy (5-15 cm) with an emphasis on the Southern French Alps (locally 20 cm). The disturbance is moving quickly towards Spain today and will also bring some snow to the mountains there.
Mostly dry and temporarily milder from Friday
Under a weak ridge of high pressure, there is little action over the Alps from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. It is variably cloudy, with freezing levels ranging from 1400 meters in the eastern Alps to 2000 meters in the southern and western Alps. At night we can expect a moderate frost during clear spells, especially in areas with snow on the ground. In Austria, it will be mostly cloudy on Wednesday, and a weak “nordstau” could bring a few centimeters of snow north of the main ridge above 1200 meters. On Friday and over the weekend the flow will be southwesterly, bringing in milder air again, with the freezing level climbing to around 2000 meters everywhere. Friday and Saturday will bring plenty of sunshine, but on Sunday, thick clouds will move in from the northwest, marking the beginning of a weather change that could bring a lot of snow next week…
First Powder Alerts next week?
It is quite possible that we will issue the first powder alerts of the season next week. Which day and which area this will be for will probably become clear by the weekend at the earliest. What is clear already, is that low-pressure areas are gaining control over the Alps. A large high-pressure area is forming over the Atlantic, extending towards Greenland, causing depressions to follow a more southerly course. Eventually, a deep trough with disturbances and colder air will descend over Europe. How far the trough extends south and where disturbances form will ultimately determine how high the snow line will be and in which regions the most precipitation will fall.
First snow in Switzerland and France on Monday, mild options less likely
According to current model output, the first precipitation will arrive from the northwest on Sunday evening or Monday, affecting France and Switzerland first. After that, the precipitation will likely spread over a large part of the Alps on Monday and Tuesday. Where we saw many mild options in the ensembles yesterday with a high snow line, today’s calculations tend towards the colder side. The GFS ensemble with precipitation and temperature at 1500 meters above for Innsbruck shows snow starting on Monday from about 1400 meters. The following days will remain wet, with the snow line dropping to the valleys. The ensembles for the rest of the Alps show a similar picture. We hope the cold options prevail and will keep you updated on all developments in the coming week!
