Both major weather models (GFS and ECMWF) now agree: the Alps can look forward to an unsettled and snowy run-up to Christmas. Especially the nordstau on Sunday and Monday will certainly be worth a Powder Alert. Below 1800 meters, rain may also fall at times. And… join wePowder as a Pro today and get a 30% discount on the first year. Check it out here and never miss a dump again!
Still very mild today
Between a high-pressure area over North Africa and a depression near Scotland, a mild southwesterly wind is blowing. Clouds and clear spells alternate today and tonight, it remains dry with +8°C at 1500 meters and a freezing level around 3000 meters.
Thursday and Friday 10-30 centimeters in many places
The Scottish depression moves on to Sweden, clearing the way for colder air from the northwest. The West and North Alps can expect 15-30 mm of precipitation, but part of it falls in the warm sector ahead of the cold front, with the snow line still around 1800 meters. Above that, 20-30 cm is possible on a wide scale, lower down about half of that. During the day, snow mainly falls in France and Switzerland, and in the evening and night, Austria also gets its turn. By Friday morning, the Alps will be deep in the cold air, and the slopes will turn white again from 500-800 meters. The South Alps will be affected by a nordföhn and will get less than 10 cm.
Short precipitation-pause
Friday afternoon it will be dry, and the air pressure will quickly rise to 1030 hPa. Saturday night when the wind drops, it will cool down significantly, in higher valleys down to minus 20 degrees Celsius above a fresh snow cover. During the day on Saturday, clouds will increase, and the first flakes will fall from the afternoon.
Prolonged nordstau from Sunday
The next snow situation initially looks like Thursday’s, with a snow line around 1800 meters, but this time the precipitation is more intense, and the nordstau behind the cold front will last much longer. The cold front passing on Sunday will not only bring a lot of precipitation but also a wind peak up to storm force in wind-sensitive places above 2000 meters.
40 to 80 centimeters
Sunday will see the most snow, 30-50 cm, in the well-known arc from the Ecrins over the Central Swiss Alps to Vorarlberg. On Monday and Tuesday, the flow will have more of a northern component, putting the emphasis on the Swiss and Austrian Alps. Around and north of the main ridge, 20-40 cm is likely to fall. Ultimately, many regions in the West and North Alps will be looking at a fresh snow cover of 40 to 80 cm by Tuesday, even in many valleys above about 800 meters. Higher amounts of 1 meter or more cannot be ruled out regionally. Henri will provide more details on the snowiest regions and the impact of the strong wind in Powder Alert #2 tomorrow.
Milder from Christmas onwards
From Christmas, we see a transition to mild high-pressure weather. On Christmas Day, it is still not completely dry in Austria according to the latest calculations, the snow line rises to about 1500 meters, but not much precipitation is expected. From Boxing Day, the sun will return to more and more places, and the fresh powder can be fully enjoyed. Below 2500 meters, it will thaw during the day, but the air is dry, and the sun is still weak, so the snow cover will hold up reasonably well.