Changeable and snowy phase for the Northern Alps, persistently dry in the Southern Alps

Until tomorrow, all parts of the Alps will be sunny. A cold front will follow from the northwest tomorrow evening and will bring snow to the Northern Alps. In the rest of the Alps it will remain sunny again. After two short snow moments for the Northern Alps, we might get a nice dump early next week.

Lack of snow in the Southern Alps

As we know by now, the Southern and Western Alps haven’t had any snow for a long time. In a large part of the French Northern Alps, it snowed a lot in the beginning of January, so there is still a good base, but in the Southern Alps (both France and Italy), it’s still waiting for a good dump. Especially in the French Southern Alps, parts of Piemonte, Lombardia and Ticino you can see the lack of snow, even on the satellite image above. On the northern side it looks a lot more wintry at the moment due to the snowfall of last week. Even the German and Austrian alpine foreland is covered under a blanket of snow.

The cause of the drought in the western and southern Alps is the jet stream. For some time now, the jet stream has been quite northerly over Europe, allowing high-pressure areas to dominate over Central and Western Europe. The depressions are blocked by this stable high pressure area and are forced to take a more northerly route. For Austria it is a slightly different story. Due to its easterly location and the undulating pattern of the jet stream, there have been occasions recently when the jet stream was aimed directly at Austria, resulting in great amounts of snow.

Over the next few days, the jet stream in western Europe will also be far to the north, but will turn south near the British Isles and then head straight for the Northern Alps. The big question is whether the jet stream will now move westwards, which would also mean snow for the Western Alps. Until shortly before the snowfall, there is great uncertainty.

Still dry at first

Before the snow arrives, it will be dry and sunny everywhere in the Alps today and tomorrow. Tomorrow there will be some high clouds over the Eastern Alps. Late in the evening, snow will start falling from the northwest, which will again be focused on Austria.

Cold front with snow

^The forecasts on wePowder are powdered by our friends at Ortovox

A cold front is reaching the Alps from the northwest and will again bring snow almost exclusively in Austria. In the west the air pressure is still too high at the moment. Friday during the day most areas of Austria will be covered in snow. I expect some 5 to 10 centimetres in Vorarlberg and the west of Tyrol. Further east, the amounts will increase. Between Kitzbühel and the most eastern areas of Austria there will be some 20 centimetres. In the Nordstau areas locally 30 centimetres. Here, it may continue to snow into the night from Friday to Saturday.

Warm front passing by

On Saturday and Sunday, a strong low-pressure area from Scandinavia will move further towards the southeast. The tip of a warm front will touch the Eastern Alps. Temperatures will rise on the northern side and it will remain mainly cloudy, but only the extreme eastern areas in Austria might temporarily get some snow above 800 metres.

On the map below, you can clearly see that behind the warm front, the cold front will soon follow. In the night from Saturday to Sunday colder air will flow in and it might start snowing again in the Northern Alps. Much more than 10 centimetres (with a stormy wind higher up) this will not bring in Austria and the amounts are already decreasing towards Switzerland.

Lots of snow next week

Early next week it looks like there is going to be a lot of snow for the Northern Alps when a new low pressure area from over the North Sea deflects to the southeast and creates a strong northerly flow. Friday will probably bring PA#5 for snowfall after the weekend in Austria.

The southern Alps will still have to be patient and not expect any snow with the increasing Nordföhn, but the new depression will take a slightly more direct course from the North Sea towards the Alps, increasing snow chances for Switzerland on Monday. Again, for this situation, the high pressure area west of the Alps is very close and could throw a spanner in the works in the coming days. I think most of the French areas will be out of the question again. The GFS is already a lot less positive than the European weather model. The rest of the Northern Alps might get more than half a meter of snow up to Wednesday, but where the snowfall will be concentrated will become clear in the coming days. At the moment is looks like Austria has the highest chance for a lot of snow next week.