It's pretty crazy. I spend two of the last three Christmas holidays in the Caribbean with family and those two Christmas holidays were warm. Last year (in 2011) I spent Christmas in Europe and it was cold with a lot of snow.
Christmas 2012 is warm again. It was 16,4 degrees in Adelboden on Monday. And that was on an altitude of 1350 meter! Let's see if the temperatures will rise again, before it will start snowing from the west.
The wind will turn to the southwest and that means snow! It will start snowing in the French Alps and southern Alps this afternoon. The snowline is dropping to 1200 meter. The sun will come out in the west on Wednesday morning, but it will still be snowing in the east.
I expect the most snow to fall in and around the main Alpine ridge, including the Vorarlberg.
Part two of powderalert #10 will follow on Thursday. The snowline is dropping to 1000-1200 meter, and especially the French northern Alps, the western parts of Wallis and the areas north of the northern Alpine ridge can expect lots of freshies. The snowline will rise again on Friday, due to warmer air. It will remain cold the longest in Wallis. It will be sunny and warm on Saturday.
Advice for the next days
Wednesday: Main alpine ridge (Mt. Blanc, Écrins, Upper Wallis, Gotthard, Engadin, and the Ötztal)
Thursday: pretty much the same as Wednesday
Friday: around the Mt. Blanc and the western parts of Wallis
I was talking about a positive NAO-index yesterday. That's bad news for the Alps, but good news for western Norway, because 'They are also associated with above-average precipitation over northern Europe and Scandinavia in winter, and below-average precipitation over southern and central Europe.'
Powderalert #10 is the last of 2012. There won't be any precipitation in the Alps, so it's time to look into 2013. And it's not really clear what will happen. Colder temperatures from mid-January? Western jetstream? Lots of snow? We'll let you know when we can make a decent forecast.
Enjoy the four days with freshies and have a wonderful Christmas. We'll be back on Thursday.