PA #6: Snow for everybody?
The countdown has begun. Storm Hermann is on its way and since Thursday night (the night of Thursday to Friday) it's snowing in the Alps. Already in parts of the Southern Alps, but it will start a bit later in the northern Alps. The Alps will be sandwiched between cold air on both sides, and as a result everyone will get some freshies. All resorts are equal, but clearly some are more equal than others. Which resorts? You can check it out below.
Let's go through it step by step. It is then up to you to make a choice. But before I start, a warning for the weekend warriors among us. In the night from Friday to Saturday and early Saturday morning it will snow heavily in large parts of Switzerland, Austria and northern Italy and it will snow deep into the valleys. Both Switzerland, Austria and Italy are already subject to weather alerts or warnings. Handy to keep in mind. In addition, the SLF warns that the avalanche danger temporarily can go up to level 4 next weekend. Okay, that was our warning, now the snow in the coming days.
Friday: Snow from the southwest. On the night of Thursday to Friday the first snow will come down in the stau regions of the Piz Bernina and the Ortler and not much later in the west and it begins to snow south and west of the Ecrins. Until Friday night, the most snow will fall in these regions. You can expect 25-50, locally even 70 centimeters of freshies at midnight and the snow line will be around 1500 meters and will drop slowly but surely. Most snow will come down in:
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Western Alps south (French southern Alps)
- southern Alps central (especially between the Simplon and Ortler)
But pretty soon cold air is approaching from the west that pushes moist air to the pre-Alps and the first big mountains of the Isère, Savoie and Haute Savoie. Especially the Beaufortain, Aravis, Belledone and Chablais will get a lot of snow. You can expect 30-50 centimeters until Saturday. If you go deeper into the Alps, to for example Tignes of Valfréjus, you'll find less snow.
Saturday: In the night from Friday to Saturday it is really on like Donkey Kong. The humid air is pressed towards the Alps by a low pressure area in the Po Valley and a low pressure area east of Germany. This creates a kind of sandwich with a current from the north and a flow from the south where the present moist air that hangs above the Alps is forced to snow empty. Does that sounds like music to your ears or what?
The sun will come out In the French Southern Alps on Saturday and it will be a powder day. Same story for the French Northern Alps. Although it will especially remain snowy in the pre-Alps, but even there a powder day. Especially in the pre-Alps and the Chamonix valley.
And then there are the southern Alps central (especially between the Simplon and the Ortler) where it started dumping heavily. Until Saturday morning you can expect around 50-100 centimeters and locally even more. But because it is still snowing during the day you have to ride in the trees. Remember that there are many places with no or only a limited base below the 1700-2000 meters. Around 150 centimeters of snow might came down by the end of Saturday.
Anyway, Saturday is a powder day in:
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western Alps south (French southern Alps, especially south of the Ecrins and around Isola 2000)
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southern Alps central (especially between Simplon and Ortler)
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western Alps central (especially in the Belledone)
- western Alps north (especially in the Aravis, Beaufortain and Chablais)
And other areas? Well, the front should then move on to the east and the snow will fall only on Saturday itself. This results in snowfall, poor visibility and very little freshies. You better until Sunday. Saturday will bring snow, but also poor visibility. And in the trees, there is not that much to do.
Because humid air from the south of the main alpine ridge strikes back and at the same time there is a northerly current generated there is a lot of snow in the main alpine ridge of Austria, but also of Italy. The quantities more to the north will be way less. I expect for example for Obergurgl and Hintertux around 70-90 centimeters of freshies while St. Anton and Fieberbrunn will only get 20-30 centimeters. Until the end of Saturday there will still be intense precipitation in the main alpine ridge and the sun will come out after.
Sunday: will be a powder day. The sun will come out everywhere. My advice:
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Western Alps south (French southern Alps, especially south of the Ecrins and around Isola 2000)
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Western Alps central (especially in the Belledone)
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Western Alps north (especially in the Aravis, Beaufortain and Chablais)
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Southern Alps central (especially between Simplon and Ortler)
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Southern Alps east(especially between the Ortler and Grossglockner)
- Northern Alps central (the glacier resorts in the main alpine ridge)
And the other areas? Well 10-30 cm is fine, but 50-100 centimeters and more is much better. Certainly in the trees.
Monday: starts dry, but later, there is snow from the west coming in.
II'm in the Southern Alps central and I'll continue to update you with updates, but mainly in the evening. We'll be riding powder during the day.
Stay stoked
Morris
Comments
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AdvancedAndersBj op 16 January 2015 · 00:51Thx for your updates so far!!
Can you see any possible answers for this: US, Europe or Scandinavia in week 5??
We have postponed any flight options to last minute. We live on the west coast of Norway where living is currently fantastic and we are running out of snow records... Week 5 we planned a trip to Utah, but conditions are not that good. Looking at alternatives in Europe or just staying at home in scandinavia. Any hints on your way, or when will you look that far into the future? -
Touristmeteomorris op 16 January 2015 · 08:46@AndersBj, are you talking about the first week of february? -
AdvancedKlasRydstrand op 16 January 2015 · 10:39Where in the Southern Alps central are you Morris? Any good? FYI week 5 starts with January 26th, only Swedes like myself and @AndersBj know these things 😃 -
Touristmeteomorris op 16 January 2015 · 11:20@KlasRydstrand LOL 😉 I'm now in the Lombardia. Will have a look at the wettermaps this evening and give you an update.
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AdvancedAndersBj op 16 January 2015 · 14:28Yes from 26th of January... And @KlasRydstrand, we Norwegians also know abt these things...😉
@meteomorris we have open options for Canada/NA too. But Europe is easily accessible and pretty easy to move around by car too -
AdvancedPetter op 16 January 2015 · 15:40@meteomorris Im going to Sulden January 27th and will stay untill 1 feb. It seem like more snow will come down west from Ortler, right? What does the forecast for Ortler looks like? -
Touristmeteomorris op 16 January 2015 · 22:51@AndersBj, skip Utah.. choose Europe! There is not much snow in the forecast for Utah. But you are also mentioning Canada. Well, they have more snow in the forecast.
But Europe is also going for extra snow. NOA is in the plus for the next week (= snow for western Norway as of the middle of next week) and there is snow in the forecast for the Alps.
What are your plans for Canada? Have been there already several times so I could help you out a bit with your choice between NA or Europe.
@Petter, Ortler will get around 60 cm (and a lot of wind) -
AdvancedAndersBj op 16 January 2015 · 23:47@meteomorris I guess we skip Utah... Strange cuz it's way below average snowfall for January...
Regarding Canada, we would head for BC! I've checked yr.no and it seems like precipitation is more likely all west than in Banff area. But have never been there or anywhere in NA skiing before, so this is an open landscape. If it's dumping anywhere, we'd go, as long as it's fairly accessible...
Europe is nice, because of the short distance within the alps. You can go from east to west in an afternoon. You need a pair of skis and a car, that's all...
So I guess precipitation is deciding..😉
Currently in Sogndal in a lodge. And out 1-1,5 m of new snow last 4-5 days. But very windy tonight. -
AdvancedAndersBj op 16 January 2015 · 23:49Meaning: awaiting forecast before deciding betw Europe or NA..
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AdvancedPetter op 17 January 2015 · 08:14@meteomorris strong winds, damn. The snowpack is tricky as is is. Well lets see if the next week brings some good news. Livingo looks better, only 1,5 h drive from Ortler
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Touristmeteomorris op 17 January 2015 · 09:35@Petter, we have around 80 cm now, but there is also a lot of wind at the top. In the Woods is great though.
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TouristSenault85 op 17 January 2015 · 19:47Just got back from Utah back in Tahoe now. Great coverage there , decent snow and right around the end of the month storms are going get going again. The Avy danger high in the Alps with all the sugar snow, I would say Utah is a solid bet. -
AdvancedAndersBj op 17 January 2015 · 23:38@meteomorris when will you be able to see towards nxt weekend the following days?
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Touristmeteomorris op 17 January 2015 · 23:53@AndersBj tomorrow evening. Pretty tired off all the powder we had today and tomorrow is blue bird... 😉
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AdvancedPetter op 18 January 2015 · 09:47@meteomorris hard work to ski all that powder
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Touristmeteomorris op 18 January 2015 · 23:15@Petter, lol.
@Senault85, thanks for your report.
@AndersBj, 7-10 days forecast is in favour of the Alps since this week will bring new snow to the Alps. Long term is still sketchy. Will share my thoughts with you tomorrow. -
AdvancedAndersBj op 18 January 2015 · 23:17Thx so far @meteomorris! We'll stay put! Nice pics from Livigno😉
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Touristmeteomorris op 18 January 2015 · 23:19@AndersBj, thanks. Will be in Canada as of january the 23th till the 29th. -
AdvancedAndersBj op 18 January 2015 · 23:22because of weather predictions?? And where?@meteomorris -
Touristmeteomorris op 19 January 2015 · 07:30@AndersBj, we go heliskiing in Revelstoke for 5 days. That has turned out always to be a safe bet. Good snow, untracked, no powder stress and amazing terrain.