End of the drought in sight!


By meteomorris on 20 December 2015 · 5

Yes, you read that right. The end of the drought in sight. And no, don't start staring at the maps, because you can't really see something on it yet. A high pressure system over the Mediterranean is dominating the weather in the Alps since November (for 45 days already, which is quite exceptional). The results are that there's no pretty much no natural snow to be found in the southern Alps and the temperatures are unusually high. This is caused by a very strong Polar Vortex which provides a powerful jet stream. As a result cold air is not allowed to reach the Alps. It's only winter in Canada, the Northwest of the US, northern Scandinavia and northern Russia.

(C) National Science Foundation
(C) National Science Foundation

But the end is in sight. Such situations usually no longer hold than 45-60 days and so we should start to prepare for a change in the weather. It depends on which measuring point we take a look at, but the Polar Vortex is influencing the weather in the Alps for 30-45 days. And this will come to an end. According to the data from the past we still have to wait around 15 days and that's not visible on the maps.

The maps can't even agree on the changes over the next 10 days. According to the European measurements it continues to stay mild and dry the next couple of days. The American models see some precipitation on the maps, but it's still very speculative. They see some snow for the southern Alps. Much more interesting is from which the direction the breakthrough eventually is coming from. From the west with snow for the southern Alps first? Or will the Russian Bear (very cold air from the east) come towards the Alps? We will see. The coming weeks will be crucial for the rest of our winter.

You can read more about the Polar Vortex here. Be sure to read this article which gives us some faith for the return of winter in January and February.

Stay stoked, Morris

Comments


  • thomasweller
    Tourist
    thomasweller op 20 December 2015 · 19:53
    Hmmm, great reads...just that there's no mention of precipitation trends but that's got to do more with the westerlies. Let's hope that that bloody high pressure retreats allowing moisture to enter central Europe and mix with the cold. I've got a three week trip to Serre Che starting Jan 16, (locked in), and I'm feeling more than a little desperate...
  • meteomorris
    Tourist
    meteomorris op 20 December 2015 · 21:54
    @thomasweller thanks. Looks like we might see a shift in the pattern at the start of 2016.
    May the powder be with you.
  • levsturmer
    levsturmer op 20 December 2015 · 21:59
    Hmmm, great reads...just that there's no mention of precipitation trends but that's got to do more with the westerlies. Let's hope that that bloody high pressure retreats allowing moisture to enter central Europe and mix with the cold. I've got a three week trip to Serre Che starting Jan 16, (locked in), and I'm feeling more than a little desperate... thomasweller op 20 Dec 2015 19:53
    Tell me about it. I have a week in Serre Che In Jan 2 and still no snow up there.
  • Senault85
    Tourist
    Senault85 op 21 December 2015 · 08:05
    Here in California we are waiting for the pattern change to a more classic El Nino type jet stream as well. It looks like things are changing around the 1st of the year here is hoping for snow in the Alps too.
  • Willi
    Expert
    Willi op 21 December 2015 · 10:25
    I'm leaving to the alps on the 29th for 2 weeks. luckily i am flexilbe with my mobile home. but still we need allot of snow to have a real powder shredd session. i really hope the snow comes down somewhere in the alps...!!

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