It's getting more and more difficult to find something that looks and feels like powder in the Alps. And that won't change till the end of the year. We just have to make the best of it. When you go out there with a good mountain guide the chances on finding better snow definitely increase. Fortunately for us, the indications for The Big Change are piling up. That started a few days ago with my rather academic story about the Polar Vortex. A situation that normally persists no longer than 45-60 days. Kind of theoretical for most of you, but it looks like it will happen. It's still too early for details, but all those little indications should bring us The Big Change we have all been waiting for: the true arrival of winter.
It's nice to see that the dominant high pressure area is on different positions on the weather maps from the US and Europe. It's still above the Alps during the Christmas, but it's positioned above Russia at the end of the year. It could be the first signal of a jet stream that's positioned more to the south.
If this high pressure area is moving, it's possible for storms (and hopefully also some cold air) to reach the Alps. The jet stream is still far north of the Alps during Christmas, but it could find its way to the Alps around New Year.
And all of this is also reflected in the ensembles. Check out this point in the Alps below. It's dry till the end of the year, but then we suddenly see a set of jagged lines emerge. An indication that precipitation will manage to reach the Alps. But the set of lines at the top of the image below is also showing something nice. It looks like the temperature will gradually drop towards normal values.
As for the temperature, it's still very speculative, because a lot can change in the next couple of days. I think we should be happy with the indication that we could get some precipitation. Cherish them! The countdown to 2016 has begun, but more important for me is the fact that the countdown to The Big Change started. The end of the drought is coming up and it's getting more and more realistic. I'll enjoy Christmas under a green tree in a green landscape. I'm back after Christmas with new updates.
Enjoy Christmas everybody!
Stay stoked, Morris