There's something changing in the weather


By meteomorris on 24 December 2015 · 11

It's getting more and more difficult to find something that looks and feels like powder in the Alps. And that won't change till the end of the year. We just have to make the best of it. When you go out there with a good mountain guide the chances on finding better snow definitely increase. Fortunately for us, the indications for The Big Change are piling up. That started a few days ago with my rather academic story about the Polar Vortex. A situation that normally persists no longer than 45-60 days. Kind of theoretical for most of you, but it looks like it will happen. It's still too early for details, but all those little indications should bring us The Big Change we have all been waiting for: the true arrival of winter.

Different positions

It's nice to see that the dominant high pressure area is on different positions on the weather maps from the US and Europe. It's still above the Alps during the Christmas, but it's positioned above Russia at the end of the year. It could be the first signal of a jet stream that's positioned more to the south.

High pressure above the Alps
High pressure above the Alps

High pressure above Russia
High pressure above Russia

If this high pressure area is moving, it's possible for storms (and hopefully also some cold air) to reach the Alps. The jet stream is still far north of the Alps during Christmas, but it could find its way to the Alps around New Year.

Jetstream north of the Alps during Christmas
Jetstream north of the Alps during Christmas

Heading for the Alps at the start of 2016
Heading for the Alps at the start of 2016

And all of this is also reflected in the ensembles. Check out this point in the Alps below. It's dry till the end of the year, but then we suddenly see a set of jagged lines emerge. An indication that precipitation will manage to reach the Alps. But the set of lines at the top of the image below is also showing something nice. It looks like the temperature will gradually drop towards normal values.

Precipitation and colder
Precipitation and colder

As for the temperature, it's still very speculative, because a lot can change in the next couple of days. I think we should be happy with the indication that we could get some precipitation. Cherish them! The countdown to 2016 has begun, but more important for me is the fact that the countdown to The Big Change started. The end of the drought is coming up and it's getting more and more realistic. I'll enjoy Christmas under a green tree in a green landscape. I'm back after Christmas with new updates.

Enjoy Christmas everybody!

Stay stoked, Morris

Comments


  • FreshPow
    Advanced
    FreshPow op 24 December 2015 · 12:00
    Happy christmas!!
    Life starts at the end of your comfort zone
  • DWF
    Advanced
    DWF op 24 December 2015 · 13:23
    Is it a waits of hard earned € to go to Niseko first week of January? Its basically 50% of the cost compared with Whistler.
    DWF
  • thomasweller
    Tourist
    thomasweller op 24 December 2015 · 14:15
    Merry Christmas Morris!
    Thanks for all your hard work and dedication and
    the best of health to you and your team in 2016!
    Let´s hope we´re choking on it by mid January!!!
    Thomas
  • gunnarblomkvist15
    Advanced
    gunnarblomkvist15 op 24 December 2015 · 14:41
    Merry Christmas.
    You give us hope with Your fantastic work in forecasting weather. No other metreologist is up to Your standard.
  • lynsey
    Beginner
    lynsey op 24 December 2015 · 16:49
    Merry Christmas Morris, flying to Munich on 30th December so hoping for the big change around then 😃
  • Hummingbird
    Tourist
    Hummingbird op 24 December 2015 · 18:29
    Merry x-mas, and thank you very much for the hard effort in this community and to the great weather updates. Keep it up!
  • TroelsKjems
    Beginner
    TroelsKjems op 24 December 2015 · 22:22
    Thanks for the update, Morris.

    Are your screenshots from a publicly available ressource, or is login required? (If publicly available, are you willing to share the URL with those of us who want to try to study the maps in more details).
  • meteomorris
    Tourist
    meteomorris op 26 December 2015 · 09:02
    @lynsey Around the 30/31 I do expect some, but there will be more snow in the days after.
    @TroelsKjems I use a lot of sources. Which of the screenshots do you mean?
    May the powder be with you.
  • meteomorris
    Tourist
    meteomorris op 26 December 2015 · 09:34
    @DWF conditions have improved in Hokkaido the last days although they are not on the same level as usual. There are still some trees and things sticking up from the snow. But compared to the Alps it's heaven. Powder panic is less in Hokkaido compared to Whistler and the smaller resorts on Hokkaido are worth the adventure. Don't expect big mountain lines though.
    May the powder be with you.
  • TroelsKjems
    Beginner
    TroelsKjems op 28 December 2015 · 15:24
    @Meteomorris - I was mainly thinking of the high/low-pressure maps at the very top of this post.
  • meteomorris
    Tourist
    meteomorris op 28 December 2015 · 20:29
    @TroelsKjems these are from netweather.tv
    May the powder be with you.

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