Rising temperatures and chances of snow at the end of this month

It’s getting warmer, the snow line rises, you can expect some rain and after that rain no precipitation at all. Not exactly the most exciting snow forecast in history. Yet I am still stoked today. The wePowder weather model performed extremely well during the last three dumps, our forecast maps did better than the European model. There certainly is still enough room for improvement, but this good start offers perspective. And that’s exactly what I see in the long term: perspective. In this forecast:

• Saturday was a great day
• The snow line slowly rises
• No precipitation from Wednesday
• Dynamic forecast for Sunday

Saturday was a great day

It was snowing on the north side of the Alps on Sunday and the differences with Saturday could not be bigger. Saturday was a bluebird day and Sunday was gray and chilly. It shows how dynamic the weather can be. The next 48 hours will remain dynamic. It’s still snowing lightly (but deep into the valleys) in the east of the Alps, but the snow line will rise towards 1700 meters (or higher) in the course of Tuesday. You can tell it’s still autumn. Anyway, Saturday was really the day that reminded me of my best days in the Alps. Check it out below. The image on the left is from Saturday, the one on the right is Sunday.

The snow line slowly rises

The jet stream will be pushed to the north by a rising high pressure area the next couple of days. The cold air is being pushed back to the north and warm air will reach the Alps. A warm front will reach the Alps on Tuesday, which means that it can rain up to high elevations. I expect he snow line to rise to about 1,800 meters. Fortunately, the quantities are limited, but the combination of rising temperatures and a relatively large amount of moisture in the air isn’t exactly good news for the snow pack in Austria and eastern Switzerland. The video below clearly shows that the blue (cold) air disappears from the Alps and warm (orange/yellow) air replaces it.

^The perfect winter This is how I make decisions during the season. Check out my perfect winter.

No precipitation from Wednesday (please note: surface hoar)

Mild (but dry) air arrives in the Alps from Wedneday. A glance at our cloud maps on the forecast page shows a cloudless sky above the Alps between Wednesday and Saturday. This allows the snow cover to radiate the moisture and because the nights are cold the snow cover will be well preserved. However, the formation of fresh surface hoar must be taken into account on those parts of the slopes where the sun no longer plays a significant role. This will become a point of interest after a new dump, because this surface hoar is an ideal sliding layer for avalanches.

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Dynamic forecast for Sunday

It’s been 72 hours since my last forecast from Friday. I have been monitoring the long term the last couple of days and the forecast for the short term (winter for a while, but mild and dry after that) is still going strong. But especially the long term is dynamic in character. It is possible that we can expect more snowfall in the Alps from Sunday, but it’s definitely not 100% guaranteed. I’ve seen a lot of calculations the last 72 hours and it varied from no precipitation at all until November 26th, to no precipitation until November 30th. The signal for snow on Sunday is there, but it’s still too weak to guarantee snowfall. I will keep you updated. For now you can plan something different for next weekend, start working on your knowledge for example with Atomic Mountain Academy. If it will snow, it’ll probably snow only on Sunday. Nevertheless, I am very happy with those signals that indicate more snowfall. It would be a great follow-up for the great start of the winter.

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Stay stoked,
Morris