Winter forecast 2018-2019: El Niño coming up

By meteomorris on 13 August 2018 · 2

The countdown to winter 2018-2019 has begun and nature has given its first signal. According to the national weather institutes of Japan (JMA) and the USA (NOAA) there is a realistic chance of an El Niño winter. El Niño is a worldwide phenomenon that influences the weather in large parts of the world.

The JMA and NOAA estimate the chance that an El Niño will present itself at 60 to 70% for the coming winter. The temperature will rise around 0.3 on average globally. The consequences of an El Niño are noticeable especially in Japan and North America. There is no proof (yet) that the winters will get better or worse in Europe (the Alps). Earlier we already published this article.

A recently published article establishes a relationship between El Niño and the weather in Europe during the autumn. Especially the month November wil be wetter and milder than usual. This normally means a lot of snow (at high altitude) for the southern Alps and rain in the valleys.

You can check out the results of the research below. Especially in November it is clearly warmer than normal with a precipitation surplus. We will be monitoring this the coming autumn and we will focus on the Alps in particular.


    Advanced op 16 August 2018 · 18:12
    Hi Morris, So if I read the above correct El Nino give at wet and cold winter in the southern USA. So a trip to US in the coming winter should be planned to e.g. Utah and not to Canada?
  • Chester_Tartsnatcher
    Chester_Tartsnatcher op 17 August 2018 · 21:59
    UT does not generally benefit from an El Nino pattern.
    Temperature forecast (brown indicates above average) for Jan-Feb-Mar

    Precipitation forecast (green indicates above avg precip, brown indicate below avg precip) for Jan-Feb-Mar

    If coming to North America, an El Nino typically means better snow for Telluride-Silverton-Taos in the Southwest and Mammoth-June in California.


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