The countdown to winter 2018-2019 has begun and nature has given its first signal. According to the national weather institutes of Japan (JMA) and the USA (NOAA) there is a realistic chance of an El Niño winter. El Niño is a worldwide phenomenon that influences the weather in large parts of the world.
The JMA and NOAA estimate the chance that an El Niño will present itself at 60 to 70% for the coming winter. The temperature will rise around 0.3 on average globally. The consequences of an El Niño are noticeable especially in Japan and North America. There is no proof (yet) that the winters will get better or worse in Europe (the Alps). Earlier we already published this article.
A recently published article establishes a relationship between El Niño and the weather in Europe during the autumn. Especially the month November wil be wetter and milder than usual. This normally means a lot of snow (at high altitude) for the southern Alps and rain in the valleys.
You can check out the results of the research below. Especially in November it is clearly warmer than normal with a precipitation surplus. We will be monitoring this the coming autumn and we will focus on the Alps in particular.