Meteo France (MF) recently published its seasonal forecast for the next three months. Especially the Alps have our special attention. According to Meteo France, high pressure will dominate north of the Alps the next three months, which offers room for instability above the Mediterranean. The air pressure distribution is thus largely the same as during spring (according to MF). In such a scenario, it is to be expected that it is warmer than normal in the Alps.
Meteo France expects it to be warmer than normal especially north and east of the main alpine ridge. However, high pressure north of the Alps also means less precipitation than normal, while low pressure south of the Alps usually generates more rain. According to MF, we have to expect a drier period than usual the next three months north of the Alps. South of the Alps, it will be wetter than normal because of the instability above the (eastern) Mediterranean Sea.
The three monthly forecast of Meteo France is based on EUROSIP and that’s based on the data generated by models of the ECMWF, Met Office, NCEP, JMA and LC-MME.