Last weekend was good: the first PowderAlert of winter 18-19. Thanks for all the pictures and footage we've received! We can not change the weather, but we can try to tell you where you can find the best conditions.
After all the snow for the southern Alps, the northern Alps finally get some snow as well. The depression that passed via the French Southern Alps south of the Alps on Sunday at the end of the day has now arrived east of the Alps.
This started an eastern current that is currently responsible for snow in the northeast of Austria. It can snow and rain heavily locally. The snow line is expected to drop to around 400 meters altitude or lower during the Monday afternoon/evening. Especially in the eastern stau areas of Styria it has snowed heavily with an average of 15-30, locally even 40 cm of fresh snow.
There was not a base in this region yet, but today's snowfall immediately gives you a feeling of winter. There is even more snow coming down the next 36 hours. The low-pressure area changes its position, making the current slightly more northeast than east. As a result, the rest of the northern Alps will also get some snow. The snow line is between 200 and 700 meters. But do not forget, there is no base and the expected 10-25 cm are too few to make something of freeride possible.
The low-pressure area loses its grip on the Alps after Wednesday and we have to look to the west. A major depression determines the weather in the Alps from that moment on. The current is coming from the south, creating a strong southern Föhn. Particularly on Wednesday, the weather is very mild on the northern side of the Alps when the freezing level goes to 3000 meters. As a result, the snow that came down today and Tuesday will quickly disappear on large parts of the slopes.
Thursday's Föhn would not be a problem in mid-winter. A thick snow cover can have a day of with warm air, but unfortunately that just came down is more vulnerable. Let's hope that it will stick around above 2000 meters, simple because we need a base in the northern Alps.
There might be some snow coming down next weekend. The current turns to the west, and another front can enter the Alps. The Föhn will stop and colder air can flow into the Alps. This will certainly cause some snow again.
It looks like something like a western jet stream and that's something we need. A lot of of storms would be nice, but the models aren't sure yet. There is a scenario with a southbound jetstream with snow and storms for the Alps. There is also a scenario with high pressure west of the Alps and a slide with cold air and snow (northwestern Stau) for Austria on the maps. And theres's a scenario that shows drought and mild temperatures. When you look at the long term the models simply have no clue yet.
Until the 2nd of December, the output is pretty close. The peak in temperature due to the warm Föhn is clearly visible. Just like the cooling in the weekend and the precipitation signals that comes with it. Then with a southwestern current it will be milder again, and then... from the 3rd of December: complete chaos. It looks like spaghetti. The weather models just do not know, just like our model. The snow maps from December 3rd are therefore to be enjoyed with great caution.
The models are working overtime, but they are also nothing more than the dynamics that are shown to you in a frozen version. They are snapshots and the models have a lot of trouble to unambiguously present the course of the jet stream. A lot of dynamics in short, little certainty. Fortunately, we have already have PowderAlert #1 in the pocket.
Stay stoked, Morris