Gradual transition to a slightly more changeable weather pattern


By Arjen on 12 November 2020 · 0

The weather of the past week and the coming days: fog in the valleys and sunny and warm above
The weather of the past week and the coming days: fog in the valleys and sunny and warm above

Central Europe is still under the spell of high pressure. A fierce 'Gegenstromlage' like we had around this time last year with a dump for both the Northern and Southern Alps is not yet visible on the weather maps. Only in the course of Sunday evening there is some precipitation visible on the maps, but the high pressure takes over again soon and the chances of precipitation decrease. Still, this high-pressure influence does not seem to last, because halfway through next week we will probably dive into a somewhat more changeable weather type.

Warm until Sunday

The forecasts on wePowder are powdered by our friends at Ortovox

Due to the persistent high pressure influence, the sunny weather situation is not changing very much for the time being. The current steady weather type is unfavorable for the (thin) snow cover that is still there above 2500 meters on the northern slopes. As a result, we have to deal with large differences between the snow surface and the air temperature. This temperature difference favors the process of frost formation, which can form a weak layer for the coming months. You could already see the surface hoar in the photos in this article and that is not a good prospect for the next dump. On the other hand, we can't and are not allowed to go anywhere now ... But then at least you know.

There will be clouds from the southwest over the Alps coming in tomorrow during the day, but two more warm days will follow in the weekend. Under the influence of a low-pressure area above Great Britain, the pressure gradient across the Alps is increasing, creating Südföhn on Sunday.

A pressure gradient is building up between the Northern and Southern Alps, which means that the southern Föhn can break through (especially on Sunday) on the entire northern side of the Alps. This Föhn will disappear again as it passes the front in the evening.
A pressure gradient is building up between the Northern and Southern Alps, which means that the southern Föhn can break through (especially on Sunday) on the entire northern side of the Alps. This Föhn will disappear again as it passes the front in the evening.

A front crosses the Alps from Sunday to Monday
A front crosses the Alps from Sunday to Monday

Little sign of winter on Sunday and Monday

Towards the end of the weekend, a weak system is moving across the Alps, causing the northern French and Swiss Alps in particular to receive some snow above 2,500 meters. It will not be more than 10 to 20 centimeters. Below that altitude it will be even less, because the precipitation intensity has decreased sharply again when the colder air reaches the Alps. In Austria, a maximum of about 5 to 10 centimeters of snow can fall at a slightly lower snow line of around 1800 meters.

The GFS ensemble for the Northwestern Alps (Geneva pinpoint) is hopeful for a switch to a more changeable weather type
The GFS ensemble for the Northwestern Alps (Geneva pinpoint) is hopeful for a switch to a more changeable weather type

For the Southern Alps (pinpoint Milan) we still have to be patient
For the Southern Alps (pinpoint Milan) we still have to be patient

More changeable?

Don't expext anything more than little precipitation, because the air pressure will slowly but surely rise again during the day on Monday and we will have to deal with similar weather as this week. If we look at the ensemble of the 850 hPa (1500m) of the US weather model, a tipping point seems to be emerging towards more changeable weather by the middle of next week. We see more spread between the ensemble members and a general downward trend in the temperature from next Thursday. More precipitation signals! For the time being, this only seems interesting for the Northern Alps. The ensemble for the Southern Alps (above the ensemble for Milan) remains as dry as it can be. This is basically it right now, because we cannot go into detail with this uncertainty for 7 days ahead.

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