Almost no fresh snow this week


By Henri on 28 February 2022 · 4

Another sunny day in Arosa (roundshot.com)
Another sunny day in Arosa (roundshot.com)

For sun lovers, this week is a wonderful gift, but those who are looking for a nice layer of fresh powder have to wait patiently. For the most part, it will remain dry and sunny this week. Only towards the end of the week there might be some snow in the Southern Alps, but for now I'm not assuming substantial amounts. Today a short update.

ECMWF Ensemble Innsbruck (wetterzentrale.de)
ECMWF Ensemble Innsbruck (wetterzentrale.de)

Cold nights, sunny days

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Due to the northeastern flow, especially Switzerland and Austria are experiencing cold nights. We are seeing very frosty nights in many valleys. In Switzerland the temperatures dropped below -20 degrees in many places higher up. If we take a look at the ECMWF Ensemble for Innsbruck, we can see that we are still dealing with these cold air masses until tomorrow, after that the temperatures will rise again a bit and we will get to just above average for this time of year. At the bottom of the chart, we can also see the problem that we will also have to deal with in the coming week, because it will remain dry almost the entire week.

Snow fronts remain far away from the Alps (wetter3.de, DWD)
Snow fronts remain far away from the Alps (wetter3.de, DWD)
Uncertain snowfall from Friday on in our forecast map
Uncertain snowfall from Friday on in our forecast map

Little snowfall

With the exception of some snow in Piemonte and the extreme southern areas of the Southern Alps tonight due to the easterly flow, it will stay mostly dry this week. From Friday onwards the chances of precipitation will increase, but for the time being I don't expect a dump. The snowfall of these proportions that we see on our weather forecast (from Thursday night until Saturday) cannot be seen elsewhere in the other models and is thus quite uncertain. For now, I'm assuming just a few centimeters for the western Southern Alps, but I'll keep an eye on this snowfall in the coming days. After the weekend, snow might follow for Austria, but for now the European model is the only one to calculate this snowfall. The GFS lets the high pressure area over Central Europe dominate too much.

Comments


  • Bezboy
    Advanced
    Bezboy op 28 February 2022 · 12:05
    off to the Dolomites on Saturday - praying for some snow!!!!!!!!
  • dragonfly
    dragonfly op 28 February 2022 · 18:49
    Hi Henri,

    I feel extremely lucky that I can choose destination and change last minute according to forecast because I travel with my camper van. I'd like to thank you for all the work you do here. I was planning a trip to Switzerland this week but I think I'm changing it to Val d'Aran (Pyrenees), where I have already been in mid-Jan and it was fantastic. What do you think it's the reliability of this forecast (windy snapshot) for the following 5 days? Seems like some promising configuration will sweep Pyrenees. Crossing fingers it doesn't end up being rain...
    Thanks!
  • Henri
    Beginner
    Henri op 1 March 2022 · 10:20
    @dragonfly to summarize:
    First snowfall (a couple of cm's) tomorrow with a snowline of about 1500 - 1800 meters.
    Snowfall on Thursday-Friday of about 10-20cm's (maybe a bit more) with a dropping snowline to around 1000 meters.
    Until Friday Evening/Saturday a bit more snow, but intensities will be lower.

    I expect more to the west (Formigal/Gourette) with 30, maybe even up to 50 centimeters of snow.

  • DiederiktB
    DiederiktB op 1 March 2022 · 12:59
    @Bezboy Same! Some other outlets are predicting 20cm of snow in the Dolomites. I guess there is a large uncertainty in those predictions.
    https://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Campitello/6day/mid...

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