Changeable weather returns next week


By Henri on 25 March 2022 · 6

Warm, sunny and some cumulus clouds in Obertauern (foto-webcam.eu)
Warm, sunny and some cumulus clouds in Obertauern (foto-webcam.eu)

After a particularly dry March, the month is ending with more and more change. By the middle of next week, the Alps seem to be free of the long-lasting drought. A strong cooling down seems to be rather far off for the time being, as the pattern is still too zonal. However, the European model shows that it is still possible!

In this weather report:

  • Some showers today and tomorrow
  • Warm
  • Increasingly changeable

Some showers today and tomorrow

As you can see on the webcam images, more and more cumulus clouds are forming today. This is because the air is a bit more unstable stratified than the past few days, so the warming of the surface and the vertical movements can cause these clouds to form. These cumulus clouds can develop in such a way that some rain can fall from them. Snow will only fall above 2000 to 2300 metres. The temperature in the valleys will continue to rise over the next few days, reaching 20 degrees Celsius.

Precipitation in March in Austria compared to 1981-2010 (ZAMG)
Precipitation in March in Austria compared to 1981-2010 (ZAMG)
Snowpack development this season in Kühtai (wiski.tirol.gv.at)
Snowpack development this season in Kühtai (wiski.tirol.gv.at)

Warm

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Sunday, Monday and Tuesday will be sunny and warm. Saharan dust can play a role again in the southwestern part of the Alps. All in all, it's a very dry month for the Alps, with no precipitation at all locally. In the graph of the snow cover in Kühtai at over 1900 metres, the dry month of March is also clearly visible. In particular, the snow cover shrank rapidly from mid-March onwards and we are now at the value of the minimum snow depth in the reference period 1981-2015.

Sunny and warm in the Alps also during the weekend (wetter3.de, DWD)
Sunny and warm in the Alps also during the weekend (wetter3.de, DWD)

Increasingly changeable

During Tuesday, increasing cumulus clouds may cause some showers later in the afternoon. An approaching depression over the Atlantic will reduce the high pressure over Central Europe and we will finally have some precipitation again in the Alps. We will have to deal with a western circulation. This means that we will see more moisture transport towards the Alps, but it will not get really cold. A good cold outbreak will have to come from northern directions in early April. So the snow line will be a real thing and for fresh powder you'll have to look higher up.

GFS Ensemble Grenoble (wetterzentrale.de)
GFS Ensemble Grenoble (wetterzentrale.de)

Whether the change will be long-lasting remains to be seen. After a short cooling period with increasing precipitation signals around the turn of the month, the GFS ensemble for Grenoble shows a warming trend again for early April with a weak precipitation signal. The ECMWF still sees a return of winter with a possible peak at the end of next week. More information about these developments from the middle of next week in a video weather report on Monday.

Comments


  • scotty9
    Expert
    scotty9 op 26 March 2022 · 08:21
    Henri - what’s the early indications of sun vs cloud on Tuesday? Are the clouds coming later in the day leaving a mainly sunny day or likely they move in earlier? Appreciate we’re still a few days out 😃
  • Henri
    Beginner
    Henri op 26 March 2022 · 21:27
    @scotty9 Clouds will move in fairly rapidly. In the western Alps it will be already cloudy in the morning, Austria (apart from Vorarlberg & western parts of Tyrol) can get a couple of hours sunshine until noon. The more east you go, the more sunshine, but Saharan dust can actually cause some more cloudiness than expected on Tuesday, also in Austria.
    *message edited by Henri op 26 Mar 2022 21:36 (15% bewerkt)
  • StefanIvarsson
    Advanced
    StefanIvarsson op 30 March 2022 · 13:34
    Henri,
    How reliable is the currently very interesting forecast for Central Switzerland for the weekend of the 7-9th of April?
    //Stefan
    Stefan
  • tomabens
    tomabens op 31 March 2022 · 08:03
    Can we have an update please ?
  • albebrega
    Beginner
    albebrega op 31 March 2022 · 09:31
    Any update? Even the forecast map looks like to be not updated.

    thank you
  • Henri
    Beginner
    Henri op 31 March 2022 · 10:05
    Last update: https://wepowder.com/en/forum/topic/284701
    Another video-update of the snowfall will follow today (in a couple of hours).

    @StefanIvarsson we will get some fresh snow end of next week, but jthere is still a lot of uncertainty about the hotspots and amounts.
    *message edited by Henri op 31 Mar 2022 10:06 (5% bewerkt)

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