After a particularly dry March, the month is ending with more and more change. By the middle of next week, the Alps seem to be free of the long-lasting drought. A strong cooling down seems to be rather far off for the time being, as the pattern is still too zonal. However, the European model shows that it is still possible!
In this weather report:
As you can see on the webcam images, more and more cumulus clouds are forming today. This is because the air is a bit more unstable stratified than the past few days, so the warming of the surface and the vertical movements can cause these clouds to form. These cumulus clouds can develop in such a way that some rain can fall from them. Snow will only fall above 2000 to 2300 metres. The temperature in the valleys will continue to rise over the next few days, reaching 20 degrees Celsius.
Sunday, Monday and Tuesday will be sunny and warm. Saharan dust can play a role again in the southwestern part of the Alps. All in all, it's a very dry month for the Alps, with no precipitation at all locally. In the graph of the snow cover in Kühtai at over 1900 metres, the dry month of March is also clearly visible. In particular, the snow cover shrank rapidly from mid-March onwards and we are now at the value of the minimum snow depth in the reference period 1981-2015.
During Tuesday, increasing cumulus clouds may cause some showers later in the afternoon. An approaching depression over the Atlantic will reduce the high pressure over Central Europe and we will finally have some precipitation again in the Alps. We will have to deal with a western circulation. This means that we will see more moisture transport towards the Alps, but it will not get really cold. A good cold outbreak will have to come from northern directions in early April. So the snow line will be a real thing and for fresh powder you'll have to look higher up.
Whether the change will be long-lasting remains to be seen. After a short cooling period with increasing precipitation signals around the turn of the month, the GFS ensemble for Grenoble shows a warming trend again for early April with a weak precipitation signal. The ECMWF still sees a return of winter with a possible peak at the end of next week. More information about these developments from the middle of next week in a video weather report on Monday.